HERNDON, VA—The outlook for growth in office-using employment, and thus net absorption of office space, is continuing to brighten, according to the latest semi-annual forecast from the NAIOP Research Foundation. The forecast's authors, Dr. Hany Guirguis, Manhattan College, and Dr. Joshua Harris, University of Central Florida, are predicting absorption of 39.7 million square feet across the US this year. At about 10 million square feet per quarter, the tally is similar to the 41.4 million square feet actually absorbed in 2016.
The current model forecasts a slight decline, to 37.1 million square feet, of positive net absorption in 2018. However, that outlook is based on fourth quarter '16 data reflecting uncertainty before and after the election. As the Trump administration's political agenda takes shape, the forecast is likely be revised.
In fact, the study notes, Q4 absorption proved to be far stronger than forecast, with 14.8 million square feet absorbed, compared to the 7.8 million square feet that was forecast. The NAIOP forecast chalks this up to greater-than-expected hiring in the office-using sectors of the economy.
Recommended For You
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Paul Bubny
Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.
