PGIM Real Estate CEO Eric Adler

MADISON, NJ—As 2017 got underway, the gap between the wall of capital available for global real estate investment and investors' intentions to actually deploy that capital was as wide as PGIM Real Estate CEO Eric Adler has ever seen. At midyear, he told reporters Tuesday, the prospects for steadier cross-border capital flows over the next six months are considerably brighter.

“It's more sober,” Adler said of the current investment environment. “It isn't like anything we were seeing prior to 2016”—a year that began with turbulence in the Chinese stock market routing global markets—“but it's more predictable.”

Adler and Peter Hayes, global head of investment research at PGIM RE, charted a climate in which it has become more challenging for investors to hit their targets. “The returns outlook is getting lower in real estate,” said Hayes, discussing the firm's latest Global Outlook report.

He cited slowing yield compression as a driver behind these lower returns. For core properties in gateway markets, returns at presents are “in the high single digits,” Adler said.

And while political uncertainty has made headlines around the world, “investors are nervous about the economic outlook” more so than any governmental turbulence, Hayes said. Looking at investors' main concerns this year compared to '16, while “global economic shock” is still the biggest headache, it leads by a smaller margin. Conversely, “faster than expected interest rates rises” and “property bubble busting” saw the biggest upward leaps in the rankings. Even so, said Hayes, “there's no evidence of a systemic risk.”

Accordingly, PGIM RE sees comparatively little appetite for style and location risks. Nearly one-third of all investment activity in 2016 was concentrated in just eight global markets; by continent, they're London, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong, New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington, DC. Although this share is smaller than it was following the 2008 global financial crisis, it remains elevated compared to pre-crisis norms, according to the report.

Yet PHIM RE sees a host of opportunities outside these core markets. Secondary assets, for instance: “With historically low yields in core markets, investors are looking toward secondary buildings, locations and markets to meet target returns,” the report states.

Another value-driven opportunity set identified by PGIM RE is decentralized and regional office markets. Such markets offer “improved occupier market prospects and attractive yield spreads.”

Half of the eight opportunities the report identifies are structural in nature. One focuses on the industrial sector in the era of e-commerce: “Spending patterns and consumer demands are evolving rapidly, giving rise to investment opportunities in logistics markets across the United States.” Another cites structural growth trends linked to demographic and other social factors, “especially in-town residential and needs-based alternatives.”

And while brick-and-mortar retail may take a back seat in logistics investment opportunities, it figures more prominently in tourist-heavy markets. “Retail markets have been overlooked by investors in recent years but are set to benefit from positive tourist-related demand, as are hotels,” according to PGIM RE. Last but not least among structural opportunities, PGIM RE sees “an increasingly attractive opportunity to invest in fast-growing emerging markets, owing to improving capital market stability.”

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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