ATLANTA—If we handed out a report card for commercial real estate in the Southeast for the first six months of the year, what would it look like? NKF brokers Dan R. Phelan in Atlanta,
Marc E. deBaptiste in South Florida and Drew White in Washington, DC sound off on Southeast growth, emerging areas and 2018 market predicts in this exclusive interview.
GlobeSt.com: How did your market change in the first half of this year?
Phelan: We didn't see material changes in the market, and fundamentals continue to be robust.
deBaptiste: It was an interesting start to the year as there was noticeably less seller activity in January compared to previous years. However, that picked up in February, and transaction volume has become consistent with the strong levels we experienced in 2016.
White: The sales market is now ramping up throughout the DC market. The first part of the year had some post-election stagnation, and though we are seeing a lot more hit the market now, it is still lagging behind the usual volume.
GlobeSt.com: Which submarkets will surprise people in the third and fourth quarter?
Phelan: South Atlanta submarkets will continue to see a surge in new employment and expansions, driving rental demand. (Southeast just saw a $250 million multifamily portfolio trade.)
deBaptiste: Essentially all submarkets are performing well, so there should be little surprise. One noteworthy submarket is the greater downtown area of Miami and Brickell corridor. This area is being developed into an extremely impressive live-work hub. The quality and design of newly-constructed multifamily and mixed-use is among the best in the nation.
White: In DC—Foggy Bottom, Southwest and U Street. These submarkets are projected to have solid rent growth, despite deliveries. As for infill markets, North Alexandria/Glebe Road had 8.2% growth last year and there are no deliveries scheduled for that area in the immediate future. Hyattsville had 4.2% five-year average growth with a 97% occupancy. Metro-wide, the greater Fredericksburg/Stafford, Greenbelt and Outlying Prince Georges County markets have seen surprisingly high occupancy and rent growth.
GlobeSt.com: What market shifts are you noticing that others haven't?
deBaptiste: Up until the past year, there seemed to be a cap on the scope and budget for improvements planned for a value-add acquisition. The concern being that there was also a cap on the amount of additional rent that could be archived for the improvements. (Did you know multifamily rents are rising in over half the states in the nation? Find out which ones in this ABODO report.)
Just today during our weekly statewide internal production meeting, we learned of yet another owner that is far exceeding their rent projections with a value-add property we transacted with them the end of last year. The shift we are noticing is that with correct programming of improvements to the property, value-add rents projections can be much higher than in the past. There seems to be a strong correlation with rents achieved when the quality of amenities and unit interiors are mirrored from newly-developed properties in the same trade area.
White: Core money is looking more like core plus returns, and a lot of prospects have value-add money again.
ATLANTA—If we handed out a report card for commercial real estate in the Southeast for the first six months of the year, what would it look like? NKF brokers Dan R. Phelan in Atlanta,
Marc E. deBaptiste in South Florida and Drew White in Washington, DC sound off on Southeast growth, emerging areas and 2018 market predicts in this exclusive interview.
GlobeSt.com: How did your market change in the first half of this year?
Phelan: We didn't see material changes in the market, and fundamentals continue to be robust.
deBaptiste: It was an interesting start to the year as there was noticeably less seller activity in January compared to previous years. However, that picked up in February, and transaction volume has become consistent with the strong levels we experienced in 2016.
White: The sales market is now ramping up throughout the DC market. The first part of the year had some post-election stagnation, and though we are seeing a lot more hit the market now, it is still lagging behind the usual volume.
GlobeSt.com: Which submarkets will surprise people in the third and fourth quarter?
Phelan: South Atlanta submarkets will continue to see a surge in new employment and expansions, driving rental demand. (Southeast just saw a $250 million multifamily portfolio trade.)
deBaptiste: Essentially all submarkets are performing well, so there should be little surprise. One noteworthy submarket is the greater downtown area of Miami and Brickell corridor. This area is being developed into an extremely impressive live-work hub. The quality and design of newly-constructed multifamily and mixed-use is among the best in the nation.
White: In DC—Foggy Bottom, Southwest and U Street. These submarkets are projected to have solid rent growth, despite deliveries. As for infill markets, North Alexandria/Glebe Road had 8.2% growth last year and there are no deliveries scheduled for that area in the immediate future. Hyattsville had 4.2% five-year average growth with a 97% occupancy. Metro-wide, the greater Fredericksburg/Stafford, Greenbelt and Outlying Prince Georges County markets have seen surprisingly high occupancy and rent growth.
GlobeSt.com: What market shifts are you noticing that others haven't?
deBaptiste: Up until the past year, there seemed to be a cap on the scope and budget for improvements planned for a value-add acquisition. The concern being that there was also a cap on the amount of additional rent that could be archived for the improvements. (Did you know multifamily rents are rising in over half the states in the nation? Find out which ones in this ABODO report.)
Just today during our weekly statewide internal production meeting, we learned of yet another owner that is far exceeding their rent projections with a value-add property we transacted with them the end of last year. The shift we are noticing is that with correct programming of improvements to the property, value-add rents projections can be much higher than in the past. There seems to be a strong correlation with rents achieved when the quality of amenities and unit interiors are mirrored from newly-developed properties in the same trade area.
White: Core money is looking more like core plus returns, and a lot of prospects have value-add money again.
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