The views expressed are the author's own.

Over an eight year period, Obama managed to turn a messy world into one that is the most dangerous since WWII. His ridiculing Romney about Russia, his apology tour to the Mideast in 2009, the failure to act when the Iranians were rising up against the regime, and then his failure to act on his red line, just proved to Russia, Iran, China, Venezuela, and radical Islamists, that they were free to do as they pleased in the world and Obama would do nothing to stop them other than whine about human rights abuses and then he would run to the UN. He confirmed his refusal to act by disarming the US military just as the world threats were mounting. The result is we now have 700,000 dead Syrians, 13 million homeless, and a massive demographic shift toward eventual Muslim majorities in places like the Netherlands, ISIS terrorism across the whole world, Russia in Ukraine, North Korea threatening us and China using its money to influence Southeast Asia and Africa. The US military is so stripped down that 70% of marine fighter jets cannot fly due to lack of spare parts and mechanics.

Trump is changing the entire geopolitical calculus, and what happens in North Korea is a message the whole world is waiting to see. This is equivalent to the Syria red line. My belief is China's Xi Jinping and Trump will make a deal to put North Korea's Kim Jong-un back in a box, and maybe China will be able to get the generals to assassinate Kim before he has them killed. Many on the liberal side think Trump is acting impulsively and recklessly. However, a review of history shows that 1. All prior attempts over the past 25 years using direct negotiation have failed and left us in this dangerous situation with this nut owning nukes, 2. Russia is solidly in Ukraine and Syria, 3. ISIS has established a worldwide terror organization, 4. Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro crushes his people, 5. Iran runs rampant through the Middle East and has major influence in Iraq and Syria, and 6. the US military is severely deficient to carry out its missions.

Whatever bad things you think of Trump, many of which are correct, if he pulls off a major change in Korea and does it with Xi, then everything in the world changes and US power is reestablished. Liberals are going nuts over Trump's threats to North Korea, but all they hark back to is the same old failed strategies of Obama, talk and do nothing that might get Kim angry. North Korea represents a true threat unlike any we have seen since the Cuban missile crisis. Most, and maybe all of you were not even born yet or too young to know. Since history is no longer taught in school you do not know what happened. I was in the Navy at the time. Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev sent nuclear missiles to Cuba and had them aimed directly at US cities. They were manned by Soviet soldiers. We were on the edge of nuclear war at any moment. It was real and not just threats like now with North Korea. Kennedy offered to talk but Khrushchev sent a nasty response. So Kennedy sent an armada of US Navy warships to Cuba and blockaded the island, vowing to stop any Soviet ship. Soon a Soviet ship with nuclear missiles arrived and was stopped by a US destroyer with its guns aimed at the ship. Kennedy told the Soviets back off and take away the missiles in Cuba or we shoot. It was a credible threat. Khrushchev backed off, and a deal was cut to remove the nukes from Cuba in return for us removing ours from Turkey. This is the exact replay of that. Here it is China instead of the Soviets, but the power play is the same script. Reality is in geopolitics, only raw power and the willingness to really use it works. Sanctions never work unless backed by military power. Iran sanctions worked because Bush showed he was willing to go to war, until Obama gave away everything and set up a disaster for the world by unleashing Iran just as they were crumbling.

What does all this mean for CRE? If Trump does manage to cut a deal with Xi, as it now appears is possible, then the US will be reestablished as the pre-eminent world power. Everything will change with Russia, Iran and even Europe. Markets will relax and move forward with renewed vigor. The economy will continue to grow, and Trump will have greatly renewed power in DC. Eventually Mueller will announce there was no collusion, there will be some charges against Paul Manafort or Michael Flynn or someone else to justify all the noise, and we will all move on. Trump will declare victory, there will be tax reform and repeal and replace of some sort, and infrastructure will get funded. Trump will be reelected. That is not a political view- it is simply a prediction of what will happen. North Korea is the key play in all of this. Trump cannot now back down, and Xi has to get it resolved, and get Kim under control or killed, which would be even better. The next several weeks will be the whole story for the next decade. China cannot let this go on with Kim putting the Chinese economy in jeopardy.

The views expressed are the author's own.