IRVINE, CA—Although not a precipitous drop at 0.1%, the nationwide decline in commercial property pricing seen in August marked the fourth consecutive decline for Ten-X's Commercial Real Estate Nowcast index. Pricing across the industry is now up just 5.8% from the year-ago period.
Ten-X sees the continuing slide in valuations occurring as market participants grapple with a higher interest rate environment, government policy uncertainty and concerns that the business cycle is nearing its end. “The Nowcast's fourth consecutive monthly decline in August indicates that the market remains in its malaise as investors sort through late cycle uncertainty and the prospect of further increases in interest rates,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with the firm.
As was the case in July, a closer look at the CRE landscape reveals varied results across both sectors and regions. A highlight, or lowlight, was the apartment sector's second monthly decline, with values diminishing by 0.6% in August, albeit at a slower pace than July's 1.4% monthly decline.
The multifamily sector's weakening fundamentals can be largely attributed to the effects of supply, particularly in large markets like New York City, San Francisco and Miami, dotted with construction cranes. On a regional basis, the Nowcast recorded a 3.6% decline in the Midwest, with smaller declines in the Southeast and Southwest. The Ten-X Apartment Nowcast is now 9.6% above the year-ago period, its first dip into the single digits since August of last year.
Muoio says August data point to “the commercial real estate market's current fragile state, as pricing is no longer being buoyed by the previously breakneck growth of the apartment sector. Until investors find more stable footing or another segment of the industry begins to harness significant momentum, it is likely to continue its present struggles.”
Hotels bubbled up slightly in July, but lost the previous month's gains and then some, dropping 1.4% in a return to the downward trend recorded in May and June. The index for lodging properties is down 0.8% year over year.
Although recent data show that demand is staying ahead of a booming supply pipeline, with Lodging Econometrics recently predicting a 20% increase in new openings in 2017 compared to 2016, Ten-X says that pricing weakness in the sector varied “starkly” across regional lines. The Southeast dropped 6.2% compared to July, while the Northeast was the only region to post a gain.
Industrial, lately a belle of the investment ball, registered its third pricing decline in the past four months, with values down 0.4% in August. Although pricing overall is still up from its year-ago level, the current 4.8% Y-O-Y gain represents the index's weakest performance since mid-2012.
Conversely, retail pricing ticked upward for the third consecutive month, eking out a 0.2% gain from July. The segment has now seen an annual increase of 6.1%, although Ten-X sees the headwinds facing retail, especially e-commerce's challenges to brick-and-mortar stores, preventing it from reaching any significant momentum.
Office posted the best showing of any property sector over the past month, rising 1.6%. However, Ten-X says its strong performance is due entirely to a 7.7% jump in values across the Northeast, which the firm calls “a puzzling leap.” Nationally, office fundamentals haven't improved, and vacancies have been essentially unchanged since early '16.
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