WASHINGTON, DC–Congress is returning today from its August recess with a looming to do list of essential tasks.

• Disaster relief in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey needs immediate attention.
• By Sept 29 the nation's debt limit must be raised to avoid default.
• By Sept. 30 Congress needs to pass a stopgap measure to keep the government open.
• The National Flood Insurance Program is set to expire at the end of September unless reauthorized by Congress.

Politics will complicate all of these measures.

The Debt Ceiling and Hurricane Aid

For starters, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who was recently urging Congress to pass a clean debt ceiling measure, is now linking a $7.9 billion disaster relief package for Hurricane Harvey to the debt ceiling's passage. As he explained in news interviews:

If Congress appropriates the money, but I don't have the ability to borrow more money and pay for it, we're not going to be able to get that money to the state. So, we need to put politics aside.

Mnuchin's strategy appears to be to use the disaster aid to make it all but impossible for some in Congress to oppose raising the debt ceiling. Before the tragedy that was Harvey, some Congress people had been floating the possibility of requesting conditions attached to spending in exchange for voting to raise the debt ceiling. Linking hurricane aid with the debt ceiling will not be popular with some in Congress for this reason. Already the House of Representative leaders plan to vote Wednesday to provide more money to the disaster aid fund — without linking it to the debt ceiling. However, it is unclear how the Senate will act.

No Shutdown This Fall

Keeping the government open is probably a foregone conclusion at this point. It is impossible to imagine Congress or President Trump allowing it to shut down — along with FEMA and other disaster relief initiatives — as Texas struggles to its feet. Also, Hurricane Irma could be a threat to the US in the coming weeks.

What will likely happen is that Congress will pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open at its current funding levels. It's done it before, countless times. And as an added sweetener to this route: President Trump has asked that the measure allow FEMA to immediately access the $6.7 billion available to it for the fiscal year.

Reauthorizing the Flood Program

Coming on the heels of Hurricane Harvey and with Hurricane Irma lurking in the Atlantic, it is hard to imagine Congress taking such a politically unpalatable step as not reauthorizing the program.

“Anyone voting against the renewal of the NFIP next month after seeing what is happening in Texas is committing political suicide, and politicians do not do that often or in great numbers,” says Daniel Hahn, a faculty member at the Miami-based Barry University as well as a full time emergency manager in Florida.