SAN FRANCISCO—The Federal Reserve's continuing caution about increasing short-term interest rates, combined with Wednesday's news that vice chairman Stanley Fischer will soon depart from the nation's central bank, mean that central-bank activity remains top of mind for commercial real estate investors domestically. How about globally? GlobeSt.com asked Jay Leupp, managing director and senior portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management, for his take on the investment outlook in a rising-rate environment. An edited version of that conversation appears below:
GlobeSt.com: The Federal Reserve's general stance on raising short-term interest rates is familiar to US investors. What is the outlook in terms of rates rising globally?
Jay Leupp: In Europe, there has been some discussion, by Mario Draghi and others, about potentially starting to raise rates as the Fed began to do about a year ago. The European recovery kicked in later and has been slower, and I think it's going to be a very slow process, because there's not unanimous agreement among the countries that it's time to raise rates. Several countries still have double-digit unemployment, and so there's going to be pressure on the European Central Bank to keep rates where they are, or if it does raise them, to raise them very little, very slowly.
If we move to Asia, the two largest economies are China and Japan, and the economic objectives of the two countries have been very different. Japan has been keeping rates low, and also buying bonds and other higher-yield securities like Japanese REITs, to encourage economic activity. We think that's likely to continue. There has been a real economic recovery in China; you've seen strength in both real estate and in broader Chinese equities. At some point within the next 18 months, we believe the Chinese government will intervene and move rates higher to temper economic growth and avoid a sharp correction. Australia, the other major player in that region, is going to be much more similar to Europe and the United States, in that you're probably not going to see a lot of rate-raising activity until the economic growth rate starts to increase.
Lastly, in Latin America you've got a nice recovery taking place in Mexico, while in South America you've got a real dispersion of political and economic conditions that will determine the intervention level by central banks. In Venezuela, obviously, you've got a lot of political turmoil and economic distress; Argentina and Brazil are recovering and starting to grow again, but are not in any danger, near-term, of major rate hikes.
So overall, across the globe—including the US—we see prospects for modestly rising rates, but not super-sharp increases until we see the threat of super-harmful inflation. We're just not seeing that right now.
GlobeSt.com: It would seem as though the prospects for inflation vary by country. Is that an accurate statement?
Leupp: Very much so. The rate-hike profiles and outlook vary very much by country and region. Working our way back to the United States, we're very likely to see the Fed pause for some time. We could see one 25-basis point increase over the next 12 months, but economic indicators have been mixed.
GlobeSt.com: Are we seeing a fairly uniform profile across different regions of the US in terms of investors' expectations for returns?
Leupp: In terms of cap rates, economic and rent growth rate expectations for investors are higher on the coasts, due to faster economic growth in those regions and tighter limits on supply, including new construction. In the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest, cap rates are 100 to 200 bps higher compared to the larger coastal cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle and New York, due largely to the fact that rent growth expectations are lower.
GlobeSt.com: The conventional wisdom is that REITs are vulnerable to a rising-rate environment. To the extent that they are affected, how does REIT vulnerability compare to other investor classes?
Leupp: Over the very long term, REITs are no more or less harmed by interest rate hikes than the broader equity markets. In the very short term, three months to a year, REITs tend to overreact to sharp rises in interest rates and behave like bonds. In the medium term, one to five years, they tend to behave like equities, and in the very long term, they tend to behave almost exactly like commercial real estate and outperform equities generally.
GlobeSt.com: Rising rates are just one factor that investors must consider; another is geopolitical uncertainty, both domestically and in other regions. Are investors continuing to proceed cautiously in view of this uncertainty, or has it been “priced in” to their investment theses, since it has been a factor for the past few years?
Leupp: There's a certain level of volatility that's priced into both REITs and the broader equity market. But make no mistake about it: REIT share prices will react if there's a severe level of political uncertainty or volatility.
For example, at the beginning of Vladimir Putin's second term, when he re-ascended to power and the rule of law was weakened, with asset expropriations and jailings of CEOs, the real estate market really started to weaken as well as the REOC equity market in Russia. We ended up exiting an investment we had made in Russia, getting out and breaking even, but REOC share prices dropped 50% beyond that, because there was uncertainty about the rule of law and property rights in Russia. That's where REIT share prices can be hurt, when you have a situation like you had with Putin or that you may have right now in Venezuela, where there's a very serious risk of a change in government. You don't see that so much in the US or Western Europe, unless the political situation is going to lead either to a downturn or, more dangerously for REITs, a period of unhinged growth in commercial real estate supply.
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