There is no reason this good set of facts will not persist for quite awhile longer. There is always a black swan waiting to drop on us, but it seems even the ones we have seen recently are not going to stop the upward growth. Q3 would have hit 3% again were it not for the storms, and Q4 will get the ups from all the spend on repairs. There will be lots of cars bought, lots of home repair supplies, lots of furniture and clothes. All of this will have a flood of money form insurance and FEMA pushing it through the stores. Christmas should be very good this year as so many are now fully employed and there will be tax reform.

CRE values are now at their peak, so despite the good economy, it is unlikely prices for CRE will rise much, if at all. Interest rates will rise slowly but p they will go. Chinese investors will be much more scares, and Europeans will invest at home now. It will be a good time for cash flow returns in CRE, but not much upside on a cap gains basis.

It has become clear that there is not much that can knock the current good economy and stock market off kilter. Not massive storms, not North Korea, not Trump bashing by the media, not terror attacks, not the stupidity of Congress. Life just goes on. The economy is on sound footing now and businessmen seem to believe that the era of over regulation is over and we are becoming free again to earn a reasonable return on investment instead of paying lawyers to waste resources. ISIS is being decimated and now the rules of engagement are to kill them all instead of the Obama policy of make believe.

It is also clear Trump will do whatever is needed to make deals with Congress to get things done. The whole Russia garbage is going nowhere except maybe they will charge Manafort or Flynn with some silly thing, like Scooter Libby and Trump will pardon them. The Democrats will be sorry they started all this as it is forcing a new look at Hillary, unmasking and the Ukraine working with Hilary's campaign. The general public is fed up listening to fake news about the Don Jr meeting, and the AG of NY trying to make a name for himself so he can run for governor. The grown-ups know there is nothing there and we need to focus on tax reform and getting a lot of other key things done in Congress.

Inflation will remain relatively low because it is low worldwide, Amazon and other retailers are now competing on price, logistics makes it easy to deliver products inexpensively and fast, and the cost of capital is still very low. Labor costs seem to be staying low, and may do so for a long time. Reality is real family incomes have gone up nicely in the past two years, and the standard of living is higher than data suggest because the way the government measures family income does not account for things like everyone now has a powerful computer and telephone and camera all in their hand so they do not have to buy all these things separately. Cars now have all sorts of added amenities like navigation and phone connectivity, and the easy ability to call roadside assistance. Mileage is far better so a tank of gas, which is now far less expensive, goes much further, but the government stats do not account for this added value that the consumer got.

The truth is the average family is employed, and now has access to many of the things mentioned above that make their dollar go further so the wage pressure we saw years ago when inflation was high, and none of the technology additions were present. Now everyone can shop online and get the best prices available instead of having to drive to the mall and pay up and spend on gas.

There is no reason this good set of facts will not persist for quite awhile longer. There is always a black swan waiting to drop on us, but it seems even the ones we have seen recently are not going to stop the upward growth. Q3 would have hit 3% again were it not for the storms, and Q4 will get the ups from all the spend on repairs. There will be lots of cars bought, lots of home repair supplies, lots of furniture and clothes. All of this will have a flood of money form insurance and FEMA pushing it through the stores. Christmas should be very good this year as so many are now fully employed and there will be tax reform.

CRE values are now at their peak, so despite the good economy, it is unlikely prices for CRE will rise much, if at all. Interest rates will rise slowly but p they will go. Chinese investors will be much more scares, and Europeans will invest at home now. It will be a good time for cash flow returns in CRE, but not much upside on a cap gains basis.