Libor is going away and there is no final decision on what index will be used to replace it. Due to the manipulation of Libor by a few bankers in London, Libor will cease to be the index as it turned out it was never a real number. It was simple what a small group of London bankers decided it would be, and they made it so they could trade on it and generate illegal profits to their own book. It is proposed to now change it to a actual rate based on real transactions as measured by independent sources.
The US is proposing using the Treasury repo rate to be published by the NY Fed daily. This is known as the Broad Treasury Financing Rate -BTFR, and is based on around $660 billion of trades daily. It is a fluid and real market. It is the cost of overnight loans collateralized by US government debt.
The UK is proposing using the Sterling Overnight Index rate which is similar to the rate proposed by the NY Fed. Japan is proposing the overnight call rate which is considered to be the risk free rate in Japan called Tonar.
These are all rates based on real trades in liquid markets that have active trading every day.
The issue is how does the transition take place legally. There are trillions of loans across the world indexed to Libor rates. It is currently not clear how the transition will work since Libor is being eliminated. How do you price a loan based on a rate that no longer exists. What is the legally enforceable rate? How enforceable is the loan agreement if the index rate does not exist or if it is shown to be a manufactured rate that has been replaced by another index.
There are a lot of so far unclear answers to these questions that could present some major legal issues once the rate is replaced. The other issue right now is there is no replacement rate in place yet. So what do now loan docs say is the index rate for new loans knowing that will change during the life of the loan to something unknown today. There are no clear answers to these issues yet and it is inhibiting lenders who are fearful about how to word the docs to be enforceable when the change does get implemented. For borrowers, there is concern as to what is the price of their loan. On large construction or other floating rate loans now priced over Libor, it is very unclear what the real rate will be. A few basis points difference on a large loan that may be outstanding for three years can make a difference.
All of these issues are being worked on and will get resolved, but at the moment there are no final answers.
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