Multifamily activity has become a constant this cycle, but deal volume started to slow this year with fewer and fewer available opportunities. Despite the slowed growth, multifamily has remained strong, and in response to the tremendous activity, JLL has expanded its multifamily team with the addition of real estate veteran Dana S. Brody. Brody joins the firm as SVP in the downtown office and will focus on multifamily investment sales. We sat down with Brody to get her view on the market today and her outlook for the next 18 months.
GlobeSt.com: The Los Angeles multifamily market is continuing to be strong. What are the major drivers of this market, and have they changed at all in the last few years?
Dana S. Brody: Major drivers of the Los Angeles multifamily market include increasing number of renters; longer term renters due to unaffordable housing ownership options and very low inventory of multifamily properties available for sale. People are renting for longer because they can't afford to buy, and rents are increasing based on demand as well as a new supply of luxury new construction units coming online. The U.S will likely add nearly five million renters between now and 2025, well above the numbers we've seen over the last several decades and a trend that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Research shows the U.S is facing an annual shortfall of hundreds of thousands of apartment units.
GlobeSt.com: Who are the major multifamily players today?
Brody: Most buyers are private investors with some working in partnerships with syndicators to pool money in order to compete with other all cash offers. Buyers pushing up prices are paying all cash, many securing financing after the close, and are long-term holders with no plans to sell.
GlobeSt.com: Where are you seeing the most interest and activity in Los Angeles?
Brody: We are seeing activity across Los Angeles, from Santa Monica to West Hollywood, east to Silverlake and Downtown. Many areas that were not acceptable to many investors 10 years ago are now attractive including Highland Park, Boyle Heights, South and East Los Angeles and East Hollywood.
GlobeSt.com: What is happening with pricing and cap rates, and where are they headed?
Brody: Pricing is at all-time highs and cap rates seem to be at all-time lows. Many investors are buying rent-controlled buildings in the sub 3% cap range, with plans and valuations based on vacating all or most of the building, renovating the units and re-renting at market rents, which often times are at rates 2-3x what they were pre-renovation.
GlobeSt.com: How does market activity this year compare with last year, which was record-breaking in terms of transactions?
Brody: Market activity is down due to a low supply of properties for sale. Sales volume as of Q2 2017 was down over 22% compared to 2016. In terms of record-breaking transactions, we saw an apartment property in Venice trade at a .7% cap rate! According to Costar, that is the lowest cap rate to ever record for a multi-family property nationwide.
GlobeSt.com: Has the recent development legislation affected activity or investment interest in the L.A. market?
Brody: Legislation has definitely impacted the ease of development, especially in Santa Monica and West Hollywood where regulations are the stiffest in terms of development. The City of Los Angeles is also now requiring over 13,000 apartment buildings to be retrofitted for earthquakes due to the “soft-story” construction of buildings built in the 1950s-1970s. The cost of the retrofitting is and will cause a strain on owners who may have large amounts of equity but not necessarily the cash on hand to pay for the required construction to bring these buildings up to code. This may, over time, lead owners to either sell or refinance to pull cash out to pay for the required retrofitting.
GlobeSt.com: What is you outlook for the L.A. market for the next 12 to 18 months?
Brody: Over the next 12-18 months the market will more or less stay the same. This is due to the historically low inventory we are seeing, leading prices to stay high and cap rates low, as demand for properties continues to outstrip supply. Rent growth will continue to slow, but in markets like Los Angeles, it will stay stable as more renters continue to come to market.
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