IRVINE, CA—With a large gap between supply and demand causing significant cap-rate compression—especially along the coast—multifamily investors are looking to less pricy areas within Orange County as well as other markets, Avison Young's Peter Hauser tells GlobeSt.com. Hauser recently joined the firm's Orange County office as principal and managing director of the company's Southern California region.
Hauser will focus on expanding the firm's multifamily real estate practice throughout Southern California. Also joining Avison Young are Matthew Hauser as an associate and Ryan Brunswick as an analyst. All three previously worked together at Berkadia Real Estate Advisors in Orange County and will continue to specialize in multifamily investment sales at Avison Young.
We spoke with Hauser about the challenges in multifamily sales today, whether the multifamily buyer profile is changing and what he sees happening in this sector next year.
GlobeSt.com: What are the challenges in multifamily sales today?
Hauser: When the market is good for a prolonged period of time, many new brokers enter, creating an ultra-competitive environment in which to develop new business. The challenge for brokers is differentiation, and it's one of many reasons we chose to join Avison Young. We have the expertise and experience, but now we can offer our clients an international reach, and our brokers also have access to a shared technology platform to expand opportunities.
Additionally, it is nothing new that inventory is extremely limited in this strong market. There is a large gap between supply and demand. Orange County, for example, has been seeing a significant compression in cap rates, especially along the coast. As a result, investors have been expanding their search to less pricy areas within the county as well as other markets like the Inland Empire. Because of the competition and dearth of inventory, the difference in cap rates between the prime coastal markets and B areas is shrinking. Ultimately, we are seeing Inland Empire properties trade at cap rates only about 50 basis points higher than comparable Central and North Orange County locations.
GlobeSt.com: What do you foresee happening in the multifamily sales realm in 2018?
Hauser: It is always difficult to predict the future even in the short term; however, I believe that 2018 will remain very similar to this year. Some keys to potential market shifts are inventory increase, changes to tax law and interest-rate movements. If interest rates move up gradually, the economy should also strengthen. We should see real wage growth and continued rent growth to offset the interest-rate increase. Rent growth in theory helps offset the higher cost of money.
The economy has been slow and steady coming out of 2009, so that will likely continue into next year. Finally, apartment sales in 2018 should continue at a similar transaction volume as compared to 2017.
GlobeSt.com: How is the multifamily buyer profile changing, if at all?
Hauser: Buyer profiles have remained fairly constant over my career in the categories of private capital, institutional capital and foreign investment. We have always had strong buyer demand in Southern California for multifamily investments. I can think of only four out of the 34 years of my career where we have had market influences create market instability. The income stability, rent growth and strong renter demand in the Southern California market are very attractive to buyers.
With strong competition for apartment product and limited inventory, buyers have become more flexible in their acquisition criteria and ability to adapt to market conditions. They may be willing to purchase smaller properties, consider different locations or look at acquiring older properties.
GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about your new role with Avison Young?
Hauser: My new role will continue to be what it always has been. I put my clients first, protect their interests and assist them in achieving their investment goals. Nothing makes me happier than working with clients and becoming a trusted, long-standing advisor. The Avison Young family is a great fit, since the company's goals are aligned long term for the clients' best interest.
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