NEWPORT BEACH, CA—The real estate implications of what Bill Ford has called “the mobility revolution” go beyond parking facilities, although the effects on that property sector will be considerable. Research from Green Street Advisors and the Urban Land Institute, prepared for ULI's Fall Meeting this week, finds that many assets across a number of sectors are likely mispriced because today's underwriting doesn't factor in the coming changes in real estate brought on by ride-hailing and autonomous cars.

“Ride-hailing (e.g., Uber) and driverless vehicles will combine to dramatically reduce transportation costs and time,” according to Green Street and ULI. “A decline of vehicle ownership could cut parking needs in half within three decades. The 75 billion square feet of parking space to be eliminated is more than the US apartment, office, mall, strip center and industrial sectors combined. The impact on land values will be broadly deflationary.”

That being said, retail—or specifically, high-quality infill malls with densification opportunities—will be among the winners. “Implications are likely unfavorable for self-storage, billboards, transit-oriented residential and commoditized retail,” says Dave Bragg, managing director at Green Street.