NEW YORK CITY—For a canary-in-a-coalmine predictor of where we are in the real estate cycle, it's hard to do much better than looking at hiring patterns within the industry. Specifically, says SelectLeaders, look at hiring in property and asset management: when more than 25% of openings are in these areas and acquisitions and development positions drop below 10%, it's a sign that the pace is starting to falter. That in a nutshell is what the real estate sector experienced during the third quarter.

“Real estate asset prices have surpassed their prior 2007 highs, and employers are pulling back on growth-oriented hiring and instead building out their property and asset management capacity,” says Dr. David Funk, chief economist at SelectLeaders, which powers the GlobeSt.com Career Center. “Our Employment Cycle model is not yet predicting a correction, and cautious optimism could continue to rule the day, but clearly there is a move to property management and corporate real estate hiring.” SelectLeaders developed the Employment Cycle model as a gauge of where we are in the cycle based on hiring patterns.

Adds Susan Phillips, CEO of SelectLeaders, “Employers and candidates share an attitude of hunkering down and managing their existing jobs and existing portfolio to maximize value. The stability in the economy and market is in drastic contrast to the real and potential disasters witnessed in Q3. Everyone who can is staying still.”