IRVINE, CA—It's a clear indicator of the direction retail is moving in that the second quarter's biggest story involved an e-commerce giant: Amazon's $13.7-billion acquisition of Whole Foods Market. It's indicative, says Ten-X, of “the broader trend of technology companies and non-traditional retailers disrupting traditional brick-and-mortar retail.” The uncertainty this disruption creates will be a challenge facing brick-and-mortar operators for years to come.
“The rise of online shopping puts extreme pressure on the recovery of the retail sector, demonstrated most clearly by bankruptcies of storied retail chains, sweeping store closures and shrinking footprints,” says Peter Muoio, chief economist with Ten-X. “For now, the sector is being sustained by strong economies and high incomes in some regions around the country, but it faces the risk of stagnation should an economic downturn strike.”
Ten-X cites stronger job and wage prospects along with increasing shopper counts as factors helping these better-positioned markets overcome “the overarching forces working against retail.” Faring best are the Southwest and Southeast, while retail conditions in the Midwest suffer from that region's “struggling economies.”
In the Northeast, the issues are “constrained population growth and expensive rents.” For the West, there are healthy fundamentals in markets such as San Francisco, but the metrics have “little room to appreciate further.”
Speaking generally, Ten-X finds that as e-commerce's share of total retail sales increases, in-store inventory needs have declined. While consumers are still shopping, an increasing number of sales are being fulfilled from warehouses while retail's per-person footprint diminishes further. Accordingly, the warehouse and distribution sector has been the beneficiary of e-commerce's hegemonic rise.
Even so, Ten-X notes that rent growth has been solid. Effective rents rose 1.8% in the second quarter from a year ago, a growth rate unchanged from Q1, and Ten-X expects this level of growth to continue through 2018.
Thereafter, though, rent growth will be on a rollercoaster, an up-and-down track already being seen in leasing volume. Vacancies ticked up by 10 basis points to 10% during Q3 and have gone up 20 bps from the year-ago period. However, Ten-X foresees a modest improvement in vacancies as absorption outpaces completions—until 2019 and 2020, during which completions are expected to outpace absorption.
There's a distinct West-versus-East dichotomy in Ten-X's assessment of markets where it advises investors to consider buying retail properties and those where it would advise investors to consider divesting their assets in the sector. The firm's long-term forecast suggests investors should consider buying retail properties in Austin, Denver, Dallas, Salt Lake City and San Jose. Clustered mainly in the Southwest with a single West Coast exception, these markets have both compelling demographics and durable retail fundamentals in their favor.
Conversely, Kansas City, Memphis, Cleveland, Northern New Jersey and Pittsburgh are the top markets in which investors might consider selling retail properties. These cities face adverse retailing conditions—whether fundamentals decline further or simply stagnate—due to either economic struggles or the double whammy of slow population growth and high rents. In Kansas City, for example, net absorption has been negative in four of the past five quarters, according to Ten-X.
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