Parsing the 'Multi-Phased' HCP/Brookdale Transaction

A Brookdale Senior living-operated property in Grants Pass, OR, part of the HCP portfolio.

IRVINE, CA—HCP’s latest initiative to further reduce its Brookdale Senior Living exposure poses “execution risk associated with a multi-phased transaction,” Mizuho Securities analysts Haendel St. Juste and Richard Anderson wrote Friday. That risk stems from “pressure of staying on a satisfactory time schedule, and not allow the effort to lose the limelight.” HCP’s announcement of the transaction notes that it’s expected to be completed “in various stages throughout 2017 and 2018, but the closings may not occur on the anticipated timeline, or at all.”

Nonetheless, St. Juste and Anderson also felt that the transaction’s cap rate range of 6.5% to 7.5% “will resonate well with the Street.” They also raised their price target on HCP’s stock from $29 to $31.