The third-quarter US Capital Trends Report from Real Capital Analytics provides additional color on the market dynamics in retail. It notes that retail withstood a 32% Y-O-Y decline in sales activity in Q3, while RCA's most recent CPPI, reflecting September results, indicates that although retail values were up for the month, the monthly increase was just 0.1%, less than one-tenth of the gains that apartment prices posted.

“The torrent of bad news about retailers is limiting investor appetite for the assets that these retailers would occupy,” according to the USCT report. “That said, what is selling can often be of lower quality, with owners of the best assets simply not testing the market. In the regional mall space, for instance, what has sold is generally priced below $100 per square foot with many repositioning challenges ahead.”

Looking at the broader commercial property market—where the “mixed bag” effect cited by Rothmund could be seen in Q3, as well—the USCT report notes that “the fact that there are pockets of growth suggests that the slowdown in sales is not a sign of an impending broader calamity. Rather, there are unique features for each property type and deal structure influencing market trends.”

RCA notes that deal volume as of Q3 was the most challenged “in sectors where unique stories on market dynamics are forcing investors to reassess their assumptions. By contrast, the last downturn impacted all property types and deal structures by impeding financial channels.

For its part, Ten-X attributed October's pricing declines, which it measured at 0.2% overall, in part to a mismatch between buyer and seller expectations. “October data confirms that commercial real estate pricing trends are weakening significantly,” Peter Muoio, Ten-X's chief economist, said last month. “Until fundamentals increase enough to justify the prices many sellers are still expecting, pricing and deal volume are likely to continue their downward trends.”