NEW YORK CITY—It's not entirely accurate to compare the CMBS market to The Little Engine That Could. Yet like the locomotive in the classic children's book, the market definitely picked up steam as the current year went along.
“Although some in CMBS initially anticipated lower lending volume in 2017 as a result of regulatory uncertainty, strong securitization activity has led many industry participants to revise their annual issuance estimates for the year,” according to Trepp LLC's third-quarter summary of sector activity. Total issuance for the year is now expected to reach upwards of $85 billion— “and should easily surpass last year's total which came during a time of global uncertainty and macro volatility.”
That's in contrast to a forecast from S&P Global Ratings as recently as this past July, which saw the CMBS issuance tally for this year staying “roughly flat” from the 2016 total of $76 billion. On the flip side, says Trepp, “many still believe that issuance is running well below the expected pace considering the large maturing volume.”
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