WASHINGTON, DC–Last month Newmark Knight Frank's Senior Managing Director of Market Research Greg Leisch reported that millennials were leaving Washington DC. Now, new research from JLL suggests that at some of this demographic may not move that far from the city. There are hotspots for highly educated millennials in unlikely areas such as Route 28 South and eastern Loudoun County in Northern Virginia, according to a JLL analysis of statistically significant clusters of high and low concentrations of millennials with a bachelor's degree or higher throughout the DC metro region.
To be sure, there is a specific cohort of this generation that is migrating, according to JLL: The older millennial — age 29-34 — foreign-born population.
In Route 28 South and eastern Loudoun County, this age segment comprises 15% of the population compared to comprising 9% and 13%, respectively, of the District and Rosslyn Ballston Corridor populations, JLL Senior Analyst Julian Adams writes.
This trend is part of the reason for Loudoun County's office and multifamily inventory levels surging by 14% and 30%, respectively, since the end of 2009, according to Adams.
The Next Loudoun County
As for which area could mimic this pattern in the next cycle, this is what Adams writes:
Our bet is on the Purple Line corridor in Suburban Maryland, running from Downtown Bethesda to New Carrolton. In the past 12 months, office demand has picked up greatly on the extremes of the barbell, Downtown Bethesda and New Carrolton. Further, based on our future demand forecasts, we project that office occupancy levels in those two areas will grow by 24% and 58%, respectively, by the early 2020s.
Meanwhile, on the multifamily side, the middle of the barbell, College Park and Silver Spring, which have seen inventory levels grow by 53% and 66% the past decade, have thousands of proposed units in the pipeline and are some of the most cost-effective inside the beltway multifamily options regionally, which will continue to drive demand there ahead.
WASHINGTON, DC–Last month Newmark Knight Frank's Senior Managing Director of Market Research Greg Leisch reported that millennials were leaving Washington DC. Now, new research from JLL suggests that at some of this demographic may not move that far from the city. There are hotspots for highly educated millennials in unlikely areas such as Route 28 South and eastern Loudoun County in Northern
To be sure, there is a specific cohort of this generation that is migrating, according to JLL: The older millennial — age 29-34 — foreign-born population.
In Route 28 South and eastern Loudoun County, this age segment comprises 15% of the population compared to comprising 9% and 13%, respectively, of the District and Rosslyn Ballston Corridor populations, JLL Senior Analyst Julian Adams writes.
This trend is part of the reason for Loudoun County's office and multifamily inventory levels surging by 14% and 30%, respectively, since the end of 2009, according to Adams.
The Next Loudoun County
As for which area could mimic this pattern in the next cycle, this is what Adams writes:
Our bet is on the Purple Line corridor in Suburban Maryland, running from Downtown Bethesda to New Carrolton. In the past 12 months, office demand has picked up greatly on the extremes of the barbell, Downtown Bethesda and New Carrolton. Further, based on our future demand forecasts, we project that office occupancy levels in those two areas will grow by 24% and 58%, respectively, by the early 2020s.
Meanwhile, on the multifamily side, the middle of the barbell, College Park and Silver Spring, which have seen inventory levels grow by 53% and 66% the past decade, have thousands of proposed units in the pipeline and are some of the most cost-effective inside the beltway multifamily options regionally, which will continue to drive demand there ahead.
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Erika Morphy
Erika Morphy has been writing about commercial real estate at GlobeSt.com for more than ten years, covering the capital markets, the Mid-Atlantic region and national topics. She's a nerd so favorite examples of the former include accounting standards, Basel III and what Congress is brewing.
