CHICAGO—Cap rates in the net lease market went on a long-term slide for several years as the economy recovered from the recession, with single tenant retail properties experiencing an especially steep drop. But the rates for all property types stabilized about 18 months ago, and signs now point to likely increases in the coming year.
In a recent national survey conducted by The Boulder Group, a Northbrook, IL-based net lease firm, the vast majority of active net lease participants expect cap rates to rise in 2018. According to 39% of the respondents, rates will increase between 25 and 49 bps by the end of 2018, and another 22% say rates will go up by more than 50 bps. Just 9% think rates will move down.
The Federal Reserve could have a big impact in 2018. Jerome Powell, the next Fed chairman, “is expected to continue his predecessor's careful path toward gradually tightening monetary policy,” according to a recent report from Chicago-based LaSalle Investment Management.
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Brian J. Rogal
Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.
