The retail market has evolved dramatically this cycle, moving from big box retailers and department stores to more experiential brands and quick-service restaurants. While the market is changing, shopping centers are here to stay, according to Gary Glick, head of Cox, Castle & Nicholson LLP's Retail Practice Group. We sat down with him to talk about how the retail landscape has changed and how shopping centers will fit into the future of retail.
How has the retail landscape changed this cycle?
Glick: There are many fewer shopping centers being built. The ones that are being built are in in-fill locations or areas like Silicon Valley that have not suffered nearly as much from the Great Recession. Many of our shopping center developer clients have used the period following the Great Recession to redevelop existing centers or to purchase value-add centers and redevelop and re-tenant them.
GlobeSt.com: Where do you see the future of shopping centers?
Glick: Shopping centers are here to stay. People are “social animals” and they want to congregate at shopping centers. However, their patronage and dollars will be won by shopping center developers and retailers that create an experience that cause them to want to leave their homes. The best retailer will create omni-channels – in other words, they will merge their brick and mortar stores with the technology to allow customers to shop on-line for their merchandise. Millennials use their smart phones for almost everything. Retailers will have to appeal to them over the Internet or by social media. We are seeing a “sea change” in retail, but nothing to suggest the demise of shopping centers. Quite the contrary, smart shopping center developers and retailers will thrive in the coming years.
GlobeSt.com: How has the tenant mix, or the focus on tenant mix, changed since the Great Recession?
Glick: Tenant mix has changed dramatically since the Great Recession. Many categories of retailers have retreated or failed since the Great Recession. In addition, Amazon's market share of retail purchases has increased dramatically since the Great Recession. As a result, the vast majority of tenants we see today are those that are nominally impacted by Amazon such as supermarkets, drugstores, fast casual restaurants, health clubs, theatres and medical uses (such as dental offices, optometrists, and urgent care and ambulatory care facilities). We also see the “barbell” effect. In other words, high-end retailers (like Tiffany & Co., Coach and Tumi) are still performing well, as are low cost providers like Marshalls, Ross, Five Below and Dollar General. The retailers in the middle (the middle of the “barbell”) are more likely to struggle.
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