Photo of Ernie Katai

SOUTHFIELD, MI—Continued momentum from 2017 is the expectation for 2018, according to Berkadia's inaugural Powerhouse Poll of its investment sales brokers and mortgage bankers. Accordingly, the poll numbers suggest more of the same in a number of areas, with 74% of mortgage bankers expecting no letup in multifamily lending, while 90% expect that the GSEs will see the most action as investors look to finance their purchases.

Underscoring these expectations, says Berkadia's Ernie Katai, is “the capital that continues to play in the market. And it's not just the agencies and the debt funds, but also the private capital that needs to be placed.”

EVP and head of production at Berkadia, Katai has been at the National Multifamily Housing Council's Annual Meeting in Orlando this week. A point made repeatedly during his time at the NMHC conference, he tells GlobeSt.com, is that “there is just a need to continue to get capital out. A lot of the investment alternatives continue to not be that attractive for the big institutional investors. Let's just say this: I haven't talked to a single person in the past day and a half who is bringing in their allocation for real estate.”

More than any other factors, Katai says Berkadia anticipates that the new tax law and continuing employment growth will have the greatest impact on the market. That's the case even with the prospect of three fractional increases in the federal funds rate this year, a prospect that investors have baked into their plans for '18.

Moreover, the tax reform signed into law last month could help to offset any dampening effects of interest rate hikes. “Everybody seems to view it as a relatively positive step,” says Katai. “And it's not just multifamily; it has good implications for retail and for hospitality.”

Even as 40% of investment sales brokers anticipate greater transaction volume in the apartment sector, an almost equal percentage (38%) say the same about seniors housing. Affordable housing, too, is expected to pick up this year by 34% of the brokers surveyed.

Outside of housing, Berkadia's brokers predict that '18 will yield more investment opportunities for industrial than in years past. “Obviously it doesn't have the size of multifamily in terms of dollar amount, but that's a segment that looks as though it has very strong growth and a lot of interest from investors, certainly for the foreseeable future,” says Katai.

The fact that most Berkadia mortgage bankers expect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to dominate multifamily financing takes on greater import when talk of GSE reform once again is in the air. Katai says the big question leading into the new year was what would happen with the GSEs' lending caps in this sector; the slight downward reduction in the caps to $35 billion apiece for Fannie and Freddie didn't really surprise anyone.

“That's become the new normal in our business: continue to keep an eye on the politicians and the impact they have with the agencies,” he says. “The better news is that Washington will probably move slower instead of faster on this. At this point in the cycle, it'd be one thing if the agencies were costing money, but they're actually making money.”

He adds, though, that keeping tabs on lawmakers' and regulators' actions regarding the GSEs is an ongoing necessity. “Especially when you see poll numbers of 90%.” Conducted internally from late September to late October of last year, the online poll drew participation from 54 investment sales brokers and 89 mortgage bankers.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.