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CHICAGO—The US lodging sector has expanded for nine straight years, and usually, when a property type is that deep into a cycle, investors start shying away. But over the past year, the top buyers of US hotels have grown more interested, not less, in these properties, according to new research from JLL. The firm's North America Hotel Investor Sentiment Survey collected more than 5,000 data points from hotel investors to measure their expectations for 2018.

“During this recovery, we've had eight straight years of 2% GDP growth, which is anemic,” Arthur Adler, Americas chairman at JLL's hotels and hospitality group, tells GlobeSt.com. But hotels performed well throughout much of this stretch, and with GDP growth now hitting 3%, experts believe strong RevPAR trends will continue in 2018.

The pool of buyers has also grown more diverse. Public REITs, for example, are still out there looking for deals. Typically, Adler says, these hotel-specific REITs buy early during a recovery and then put a hold on new investments. “For public REITs to come in, this deep into a cycle, that has not happened before.”

The recent tax reform has had an impact on investors' outlooks, the survey shows. The cut in overall corporate income tax rates, along with cuts for funds that come from overseas, means “companies are going to have more capital for investment,” Adler says. But these factors are likely to impact all real estate sectors. And hotels have sources of strength not found elsewhere.

“There is a lot of interest in lodging as a sector,” Adler says. For one thing, “it's a much better hedge against inflation,” as operators can raise room rates whenever necessary. Furthermore, for the last few years, supply and demand have mostly stayed in equilibrium. And it's still somewhat difficult to finance new hotel construction, so that balance will most likely hold for some time. Developers in the largest market, New York City, did go on a building spree in the past few year, adding many thousands of new hotel rooms. But occupancy remained very strong, and rental rates kept growing.

Surveyed investors expressed a more confident outlook for three-quarters of the North American markets, versus one year ago. Los Angeles, Washington, DC and San Francisco received the most positive performance expectations, followed by Boston, Vancouver and Hawaii.

But investors' confidence is not just reserved for coastal markets with big tourist trades. “Different investors are looking at different markets,” Adler says. The coastal markets receive a lot of attention from overseas buyers, institutional investors and the big public REITs. And in regions such as the Midwest, investors tend to be private equity, family offices and owner-operators, all on the hunt for bigger yields.

The biggest complaint that JLL hears from all of these groups is that “there is just not enough properties on the market for them to acquire.”

“It's encouraging that after the ninth consecutive year of RevPAR growth, the hotel investment community is expressing a renewed vigor,” says Lauro Ferroni, global head of research for JLL's hotels and hospitality group. “As the buyer pool for hotels remains diverse, we're optimistic about transaction volumes for the year.”

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Brian J. Rogal

Brian J. Rogal is a Chicago-based freelance writer with years of experience as an investigative reporter and editor, most notably at The Chicago Reporter, where he concentrated on housing issues. He also has written extensively on alternative energy and the payments card industry for national trade publications.