It's Davos time and the business world is more exuberant than it has been since the frenzied days before the last financial collapse. Nothing like receiving more tax cut stimulus to boost earnings and stock prices.
So was I wrong seven years ago when I posited that the post-2008 recession had ushered in “The Era of Less” in the US where most Americans would struggle economically weighed down by debt, higher healthcare costs, busted pension benefits and flagging wages due to overseas competition and technology?
Since then, record low interest rates and various government stimulus, including Obama tax cuts and Fed money printing, coaxed a weak recovery along. The stock market has enjoyed an almost unprecedented bull run, accented by the past year of heady returns for stock players—many of them foreign—anticipating the latest round of tax cuts and regulation slashing. Prime real estate has more than recovered too thanks in large part to ultra-low borrowing rates—buying properties in 2009 and 2010, a personal best bet, has paid off handsomely.
And now we have more tax cuts (stimulus)—mostly for corporations, which conservative policy makers expect will lead to business expansions, hiring more people and raising wages as part of a trickle-down process.
And so is the Era of Less already over?
There is no doubt it's an era of much more for business owners, large shareholders of corporations, and the wealthy, who coalesce into a group of one and the same. Commercial real estate owners and investors are included here—they also have received some of the most generous tax benefits from recent legislation to protect their gains. No surprise, often some of their best investments have been campaign contributions, which have led to recent tax “reform” dividends.
But this is a small group—including the highly publicized 1%. In addition, maybe there is a category of 10 to 15% of Americans who feel really comfortable and affluent, better now off than before the recession. They have high-paying jobs, pensions, good savings, and decent healthcare without ridiculous deductibles and increasingly irksome copays.
Then realize 50% of Americans don't own any stocks and the average 401K savings for those that do own them won't offer any long-term retirement security even with recent stock market gains. Wages have been essentially flat for average Americans over the past 20 years accounting for inflation. Companies continue to cut benefits and throw more of the costs on their workers, a hidden compensation deflator. Thirty percent of workers are now freelancers and have no company benefits. Most baby boomers can no longer retire comfortably and must work longer or cut corners to get by. They promise to be an economic drag as Medicare and Social Security payouts will need to increase to keep this huge population cohort healthy and relatively self-sufficient as it gets older, grayer and more dependent. The government, meanwhile, tacks on even more debt to pay for the latest tax cuts and has little available to spend on desperately needed infrastructure investments, let alone vulnerable social safety net programs.
And speaking of infrastructure, train tunnels crumble leading into Manhattan and airports use World War II technology to direct jet traffic. Can anybody spare a dime?
We are also suddenly back in deregulation mode—those nasty regulations hold back the economy and business growth. But what happens when banks fail (the S&L crisis of the late 1980s, the 2008 financial industry meltdown of just 10 years ago) due to taking advantage of lax rules or when oil platforms blow out and brownfields are uncovered, because safety and environmental laws were ignored or not in place?
The average taxpayer suffers the consequences and pays for the mop up. Are we positioned to afford the next round of bailouts and cleanup bills when they arrive? And is there any cushion when the next recession hits—the odds are before the next Presidential election.
And how will our escalating debt play in? Under Obama an additional $1.5 trillion would have been called a disaster in the making, a huge mortgage on our future. Today it's no problem. A quarter or two of 3% GDP growth a few years ago was viewed as weak, today we are headed into a boom. In 2016 employment gains were “rigged numbers,” now similar gains are evidence of economic resurgence.
The Davos elites chortle over their stock wins and new-found tax breaks. But the average worker in the US, the world's leading economy and richest nation, still makes significantly less annually before taxes than the entry ticket ($70,000) to the conference.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.