NEW YORK CITY—As is often the case, the comments in the latest SelectLeaders Hiring Trends survey tell the story of the cross-currents in the real estate industry. A few examples here help to illustrate the breadth of those comments. With regard to the industry outlook overall and the skill sets that the present environment calls upon, one survey respondent sees “positive trends overall but finding opportunities and creating value takes more work. We'll need a different set of resources (strong asset manager, deal leaders) to unlock asset potential.”
Looking at the hiring picture, one respondent says, “For employers, 2018 is going to be very tough to fill positions.” Conversely, another says that “It's sad that you cannot secure a position based on credentials in this industry. It's only about who you know.”
The year ahead brought a mix of predictions about the macroeconomic picture. “I think it will be a very good year for businesses. The cut to corporate taxes is going to help the economy tremendously,” says one industry member. Another calls tax reform “a big, big question mark. Nonetheless, '18 should be another great year as long as everyone stays focused/undistracted and does not get sloppy with internal controls.” A third forecasts that '18 “should be an interesting year…accelerating economic growth against a background of everyone thinking the next recession is around the corner, which it may well be.”
In the current environment, laments one respondent, “It's tough to get deals done. Cap rates are very low which means less margin for safety. The spread between our cap rate and the rate we borrow at is disappearing. 2018 will be a tough year for acquisitions.”
Another respondent anticipates “a very tumultuous year for the real estate and mortgage industries. I foresee large impacts on Fannie and Freddie that will cascade throughout the industries.” Still another respondent warns, “The 'cycle' can't last forever.”
Even if the current year ends up being one in which all passengers are asked to return to their seats with belts securely fastened, it won't be anything that commercial real estate hasn't seen already. “Hurricanes, wild fires, nuclear threats, terror attacks, social unrest—the disasters of 2017 at times halted hiring, but they could not keep the real estate industry down,” according to SelectLeaders' report on the survey.
Seventy-five percent of the survey's respondents reported year-over-year revenue growth in '17, and 31% achieved revenue growth of more than 10%. “However, many companies were hard hit,” according to SelectLeaders, which powers the GlobeSt.com Career Center.
“25% of our respondents reported revenue decline, and 7% of these reported more than a 10% decline in revenue.”
On an individual job-seeker basis, a majority (63%) of survey respondents would say their current searches are “passive” rather than active. As evidence of this, 77% of respondents will wait to apply to a listed job, including 63% who say they'll first “check out the company and see who works there.” Click here for the complete results from the latest survey, drawn from 10 leading industry associations whose career centers are also powered by SelectLeaders.
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Paul Bubny
Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.
