Los Angeles

For the second year in a row, Los Angeles snags the number one spot in Schroders global cities index, which measures economic vibrancy for real estate investment activity. To find out more about what is driving the economic strength of Los Angeles and what the top spot says about Los Angeles real estate investment this year, we sat down with Hugo Machin, co-head of global real estate securities at Schroders, for an exclusive interview.

GlobeSt.com: What is driving the economic strength of Los Angeles?

Hugo Machin: Schroders' Global Cities Index is a five factor model and includes population, GDP, Medium Income, Retail Sales and University. The weightings are 80% current and 20% future growth. LA scores well on all factors given its scale and the fact that it has robust economic growth forecast. The model/ index is demand led – this means the factors are objective and all cities in the model are subject to the same factors i.e. an apples for apples comparison.

GlobeSt.com: How is this driving real estate investment?

Machin: Economic growth is strongly correlated to real estate returns. The simple logic is greater economic demand results in greater demand for commercial and residential space. Clearly markets are more nuanced and we look at companies with specific sector exposure. Nonetheless, the first part of what we do is identify the strongest global cities where we can make better risk adjusted returns. We see urbanization as a clear theme with specific winners in the knowledge base economy. We identify the winners through our index.

GlobeSt.com: Where is the city still struggling?

Machin: Affordability in the residential accommodation is an issue. We don't measure that in our index, so an affordability factor does not weigh on LA's rankings. That said, the world's most successful cities are often viewed as expensive. Whilst we don't disagree, we also make the point that people, particularly younger people, often make the sacrifice to locate to expensive cities in order to further their career, the so-called career dividend.

GlobeSt.com: How does L.A. compare to Hong Kong and London, the other two top cities?

Machin: There have very similar characteristics as all three act as a mecca for global talent. Hong Kong and London both have strong trading histories, the foundation of much of the wealth generated in these cities. Where things differ slightly is that LA and London both major in the creative industries and that continues to underpin employment and innovation. Honk Kong less so: financial services are still the major industry with other mainland Chinese cities, such as Shenzen, being innovation hubs and home to major Chinese internet companies. Long-term we think this could be a problem for Hong Kong's competitiveness, although this isn't currently being reflected in the numbers.

GlobeSt.com: What is you economic outlook for Los Angeles this year?

Machin: We still have a positive outlook for LA and our confidence is further bolstered by strong results from major employers in the city such as Netflix. Real estate is often bolstered by agglomeration theory: the success of certain industries results in demand from ancillary companies that support them. The last point I would make supports the importance of Global City investing—re-centralization. We see technology as facilitating centralized working. We view remote working as centralized working, working flexibly from multiple locations in order to interact with people, thereby facilitating ideas and creativity. This is distinct to homeworking where it is hard to foster new ideas. This is the reason behind the rise of companies such as WeWork, as people want to work in a centralized location but aren't committed to one building in that city or even country.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Kelsi Maree Borland

Kelsi Maree Borland is a freelance journalist and magazine writer based in Los Angeles, California. For more than 5 years, she has extensively reported on the commercial real estate industry, covering major deals across all commercial asset classes, investment strategy and capital markets trends, market commentary, economic trends and new technologies disrupting and revolutionizing the industry. Her work appears daily on GlobeSt.com and regularly in Real Estate Forum Magazine. As a magazine writer, she covers lifestyle and travel trends. Her work has appeared in Angeleno, Los Angeles Magazine, Travel and Leisure and more.