DALLAS—Most everyone in the hotel business is pretty upbeat these days. The consensus is that the sustained growth we've seen recently is basically set to continue through at least the next six to 12 months. Constrained supply is good news, and one thing that's constraining supply for the first time in a long time is some conservatism on the part of banks who are making loans.
But honestly, that's all pretty boring. You can read about that stuff anywhere. You don't want to hear me add my two cents. Not only because it's just more of the same, but also because predicting markets and economic trends is a sucker's bet. I see a lot of people devoting a lot of time and energy trying to make predictions about things you just can't predict. For example: is the economy going to keep growing? I'm not sure how many Nobel Prize winning economics experts are out there, but I guarantee you one thing: not a single one of them knows with certainty what's going to happen.
To my mind, it's simple: there are things you absolutely cannot control, and thinking about them is mostly a waste of time. That doesn't mean you should ignore the economic outlook, but you shouldn't waste a ton of time or energy making big changes to your business strategy based on constantly shifting and notoriously unpredictable forecasts. That's especially true given the fact that a single wild card or “Black Swan” event can throw even the most thoughtful and informed predictions completely out of whack.
You can control how much you read, how committed you are to educating yourself about emerging technologies and new tools, and how much time and energy you devote to talking to smart people about how to become an early adopter and turn these potentially transformative ideas into operational reality. In other words: instead of looking just at what's next, hotel owners and operators should look at what's the next big thing—and to start thinking about how they can take steps toward making big ideas a reality in 2018.
By far the biggest changes—and the biggest opportunities—coming down the pike have to do with new technology. Which isn't surprising when you think about how fast things are moving. A little over 10 years ago, the iPhone didn't even exist. Robotics, big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and connectivity and social media are all either impacting hotels today or will be in the very near future.
It's a brave new world. Consider how we travel today. Most of us don't take a cab to the airport anymore, we take an Uber—and it won't be long before we're relying on driverless cars. At the toll booth, we flash an EZ Pass. Where is the person who used to take your money and make change? Then you get to the airport, and either print out your boarding pass at a self-serve kiosk or just bring up a digital ticket on your phone. I think of those workers who have been replaced by robots or technology as ghosts. And that's what we'll be seeing soon in the hotel business: ghosts at the front desk, ghosts in the rooms, and ghosts even washing dishes in the kitchen. There are already robots washing dishes in the Google headquarters cafeteria. Automated dishwashing systems promise a 30% cut in costs over manual labor.
This stuff isn't science fiction, it's science progress; some of it is already being rolled out. I expect to see automated check-in systems becoming more popular and prevalent in 2018 and beyond. Digital room keys are becoming more widespread. Ultimately, we will likely eliminate the need for a human at the front desk, altogether. There will still be some human interaction, but perhaps through a greeter or guest experience specialist.
All of this will have a profound impact on the guest experience, and will radically change the cost structure in hotels. There will be new costs, of course—to service and maintain those systems and technologies—but labor costs are going to plummet. And at a time when a combination of political and socioeconomic factors is making the housekeeping labor market tighter than ever before, any automation is potentially a pretty big deal.
The biggest place that tech will make an impact in 2018 is in data. The ways that we collect and use data are changing in important ways. Frequent stay programs are no longer just for elite travelers. Brands are trying to capture information on everybody that stays, because that buyer behavior data is incredibly valuable. That data is used to provide more personalized service based on past preferences and experiences. To reach more guests and capture more reservations. To increase their spend when they're in town. Marketing teams should already be using this stuff, but our ability to gather, manage and analyze vast amounts of data is growing exponentially–and it's only going to become more impactful. If you aren't leading the way on data, you need to be.
When sophisticated revenue management systems and start-ups came along, it seemed like voodoo. But those that led the way on that frontier were enormously successful. Living on the cutting edge is how you stand out in a crowded marketplace.
So when you think about what's in store for 2018, don't spend much (if any) time wondering and worrying about macroeconomics, or about the global impact of a changing climate on food prices. These things are just too big. I'm not saying they're not important—and they sure aren't irrelevant. But they aren't something you can control. And what's really interesting about the future isn't just about what the markets are going to be looking like for the next 6-12 months, or about where we are on the supply and demand curve. It's about figuring out how to use new tools and new technologies in ways that will ensure your hotel's success no matter what happens in the larger marketplace.
Steve Van is CEO of Prism Hotels &Resorts, based in Dallas. The views expressed here are the author's own.
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