It is pretty obvious to everyone other than Adam Schiff and the media that there was no collusion by Trump, the Russians did try to interfere, and the Clintons and Obama were the ones who created  a massive effort to defeat Trump and then to drive him from office. That is not as political statement, it is simply based on the facts as we now know them. Mueller would not have said there were no Americans involved in the Russia propaganda effort if there had been collusion.

No information has been shown to the various committees that shows any collusion, other than in the mind of Schiff who is still trying to claim Popandopolous, having an unauthorized meeting in London with a professor, and the infamous Trump Tower meeting about Maginsky prove collusion. Reality is the Clintons with the aid of Blumenthal and Fusion, concocted the dossier and used it with the assistance of Obama and Susan Rice to get some top officers of the FBI and DOJ to push the case and get the FISA warrant. This is going to unravel over the next couple of months into a major scandal and in the end criminal indictments of Democrats and maybe even Hilary.

So what does all this matter to CRE? A lot.  With the economy now doing very well, unemployment headed to under 4%, more take home pay for almost everyone, higher home values, higher 401K values, and millions getting bonuses and wage increases, the Republicans will not only hole the House, but they will pick up critical seats in the Senate. It is the economy stupid.  There will be a raging scandal showing the Democrats committed crimes to try to defeat Trump and they conspired with the top level of the FBI to drive Trump from office. All of this will play out just before the election.

Trump won the DACCA immigration fight by offering a far better plan than Pelosi, and asking to end the lottery and chain migration which will make sense to the average voter. If the Democrats do their usual and block the infrastructure program, then the Republicans can say it is the Democrats who voted against you tax cut, voted against immigration reform and voted against the infrastructure program. Democrats have nothing to offer other than Pelosi saying it is all crumbs. Add to this the very real national security threats of N Korea, Russia, Iran and China, and the near complete destruction of US the military capability under Obama, and the Republicans win.

For CRE this mean, further deregulation, an infrastructure construction program with minimal delays and regulation, a further dismantling of EPA regulations and delays, and a pro development attitude.

The negative will be the economy will be doing 3.5% or possibly even 4% growth and that means higher interest rates, higher cap rates. Lenders and equity will be cautious about new projects as construction costs continue much higher as the infrastructure program launches and takes in more scarce workers, and IRR calculations decline as rates rise and future values fail to exceed hurdle rates demanded by investors when they can earn as much or more ion the stock market.

It is hard to forecast where the tradeoff will be between the strong economy, strong demand for CRE, and the downward pressures of interest rates and cap rates. However, that is a much better problem than another crash, excessive regulation and a continuation of excessive approval processes.