BETHESDA, MD—Real estate professionals believe 2018 is going to be the year of the Millennial. Capital One's Multifamily Survey at the RealShare Apartments Conference in Los Angeles found that 72% of respondents identified Millennials as the generational group that will have the greatest impact on multifamily demand in 2018, far exceeding Generation Xers (16%) and Baby Boomers (12%).
If this prediction comes true, the Dallas metropolitan area should benefit. Certainly, Dallas has many compelling attractions for Millennials, including jobs in abundance. According to the latest compilation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area added over 100,000 new jobs between November 2016 and November 2017, the largest increase in the country.
The cost of living is also much lower than in the Millennial meccas on the coasts. According to the Council for Community and Economic Research, Dallas is 45% less expensive than San Francisco and 57% cheaper than New York City. And of those millennials living in Dallas, a review of multifamily demographics in different pockets of Dallas indicates that most try to keep their rental payment ratio to net take home pay in the 30-35% ratio.
Finally, Millennial-centric nightlife and entertainment options abound, from basketball, hockey, and concerts at the American Airlines Center, to mountain biking on the Big Cedar Wilderness Trail, to live music on Elm Street in Deep Ellum.
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 21.4% of Dallas' population is between the ages of 20 and 34, and out-of-town Millennials won't lack encouragement to join them. The Dallas Regional Chamber's Say Yes to Dallas campaign features a video of Dallas Maverick's owner Mark Cuban proclaiming, “If you're young and you're getting ready to start a business, no matter where you live in the world, I'd say, 'Come to Dallas.'”
Millennial-Ready Development
But where in Dallas will Millennials settle? Millennials are clearly a target of developers in the city's fashionable neighborhoods. Greystar's Ascent Victory Park and Stoneleigh Companies' One Uptown apartments feature such high-end amenities as rooftop pools with private cabanas, 24-hour concierge service, wine fridges, and oversized soaking tubs. Ascent Victory Park even boasts a lavish Uber Lounge, where residents can wait for rides.
But only a small fraction of Millennials can afford such luxury. For the rest, a more likely destination is Dallas' northern suburbs, which have emerged as a major employment center over the last decade. In recent years, JP Morgan Chase, Toyota North America, and Liberty Mutual have made news by locating headquarters or hubs in Plano. It is worth noting that they join Capital One, DXC Technology (formerly Hewlett Packard Enterprise), Bank of America Home Loans, and Ericsson, all of which employ more than 3,000 people in Plano. Nearby Richardson, Carrolton, and Frisco are also attracting major employers.
Multifamily developers have taken note. To cite just a few examples of projects in planning or under construction, Dallas-based B/K Multifamily and homebuilder Toll brothers have announced a 259-unit apartment in Frisco Square, a 147-acre mixed use development. In downtown Plano, Southern Land Company plans to build a 183-unit apartment community, its second in the city. Developer KDC and JLB Partners are completing a multiphase apartment community at CityLine, the 186-acre mixed-use development in Richardson. And Chicago's Stoneleigh Companies, in partnership with Realty Capital Management, is completing the 234-unit Switchyard Apartments in Carrollton.
All these developments have several characteristics that might appeal to more budget-conscious Millennials. They are upscale, not opulent—and upscale costs substantially less in North Dallas than it does in Uptown or Victory Park. They are also close to DART light rail stations, giving notoriously car-averse Millennials the option to work across the metropolitan area and benefit from lower rents. And they offer live/work/play environments for those who prefer to stay close to home. If 2018 does indeed turn out to be the year of the Millennials, Dallas multifamily developers are ready.
Cathy Janke is SVP in the Dallas office of Capital One's Commercial Real Estate Group. The views expressed here are the author's own.
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