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Cap Rates’ Likely Direction is Up

The effects of inflation and higher interest rates will offset the downward forces of expected strong institutional and global capital flows, says Spencer Levy at CBRE.

Photo of Spencer Levy “US cap rates were largely flat outside of the retail sector in H2 2017 though a shift from sale to refinance activity contributed to lower transaction volumes.” says Levy.

LOS ANGELES—The general direction for cap rates this year will be up, CBRE says in its latest North America Cap Rate Survey. “The recent spike in inflation and anticipated higher interest rates this year will add upward pressure on cap rates, offsetting the downward forces of expected strong institutional and global capital flows,” says Spencer Levy, senior economic advisor and head of Americas research at CBRE.

This outlook follows a six-month period in which cap rates fell slightly overall, although they increased in the retail sector in last year’s second half, mainly on account of power centers. ”US cap rates were largely flat outside of the retail sector in H2 2017 though a shift from sale to refinance activity contributed to lower transaction volumes,” Levy says.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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