DALLAS—Grocery-anchored centers continued to be an attractive property type for investors in 2017, with sales volumes increasing by 5.3%. The asset class remained stable amid a period of low retail transaction volumes. But after grocery store expansions went bananas in 2016, the industry took a minute to digest the following year. Openings of new grocery stores reached 13.4 million square feet of space, which is a decrease of 28.8% year-over-year, according to JLL's grocery tracker 2018 report.
“It's not surprising that overall grocery store expansions fell in 2017, when compared to the boom in 2016. The largest grocery chains are feeling pressure from specialty grocers, discount grocers and wholesale clubs. But we are seeing strong local chains competing head to head, and winning. Locations within the trade area and in the right markets are key. More than one-third of new store openings were in just three states: California with 1.6 million square feet, and North Carolina and Virginia with growth of 2.7 million square feet across both states. Retail follows rooftops, so the states with strong population growth will continue to see an influx of grocers,” said James Cook, director of retail research, JLL.
Moreover, those grocers with strong performance showed an appetite for three main experience drivers: diet and discount embracers, label-less and more mobile.
While grocers are taking a break on new store openings, investors' hunger for grocery-anchored shopping centers isn't satiated yet. JLL's retail investment sales leader, Chris Angelone, shared that it's increasingly more difficult to make a general statement about the sector.
“Owning a property-anchored by one of the top grocery chains is no longer a guarantee of strong performance,” he says. “Investors are now looking to hedge risk by finding pockets of geographic safety for their acquisitions. Owning retail is like owning an operating business and investors need to keep in mind-changing consumer preferences.”
Some of the trends to watch include smaller footprints. Grocers such as Aldi and Trader Joes benefit from the flexibility to take smaller spaces in vertically integrated projects. Some brands will continue expanding footprints, but traditional and legacy grocers may begin focusing on existing inventory and investing in improving the shopper experience.
“The impact of e-commerce on the grocery industry is now fully mature, having transitioned from what was once a focus only on certain items and soft goods to a full-blown application for how consumers are buying every category, including produce, particularly in metro areas like Dallas-Fort Worth,” Mark Newman, JLL executive vice president, tells GlobeSt.com. “But traditional grocers have not lost their focus on the in-store offering, staying competitive by providing an enriched experience at their stores, something e-commerce cannot provide. There's no substitute for talking with real human beings, smelling fresh produce and enjoying diverse in-house amenities, like restaurants and classes, which many of these retailers are putting in place.”
As shoppers demand more digital integration, retailers have new access to unprecedented amounts of data. This data will provide greater efficiency in operations and enhanced customization of products for consumers. In addition, the technology of blockchain has the capability of improving food safety, allowing products to be recalled more quickly and improving inventory management. With blockchain's ability to improve data management between stakeholders in the supply chain, the grocery industry is prime for integration.
Acquisitions with the greatest implications will occur between grocers and non-grocery companies, such as Kroger's potential partnership with Ace Hardware, focusing on innovation and technology that can build upon digital networks, logistics, delivery and customer engagement.
Expect grocers with existing rapid checkout technologies to continue to roll out programs across the country and for others to join the ranks of several grocers that have been testing checkout-free concepts.
“Ultimately, it comes down to the level of priority the consumer places on time, value and money. They will have the final say on how, when and why these warring grocers will succeed and gain market share. But it will take time for consumers to become accustomed or even be willing to try different offerings or alternative methods to meet their needs,” Newman continues.
He points to Lidl's attempt to enter the North American market as a recent example of how consumers can dictate whether or not a grocer succeeds. The grocer was willing to invest in premium land in a booming part of the US, and the sales weren't as projected.
“That could be for a number of reasons but certainly includes the competition with established roots in the market and to some extent the impact of e-commerce,” Newman muses.
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