SAN DIEGO—While retail big-box is a shrinking trend, players with mature brick-and-mortar and e-commerce platforms are remaining and thriving in the San Diego market, CBRE SVP Reg Kobzi tells GlobeSt.com.
According to a report from the firm, in addition to the 144,146 square feet absorbed into big boxes during the second half of 2017, six tenants have obtained leases on an additional 167,304 square feet for big-box spaces currently under construction and set to deliver in 2018-2019. The majority of the proposed boxes will be located in South San Diego and will house discount retailers.
South San Diego is where much of the new residential development is occurring, due in part to the region having a large share of developable land. Housing demand is also shifting south as many residents struggle to afford the high prices in Central and North San Diego. This makes that region particularly attractive to off-price or discount/value retailers, which have been experiencing strong growth and plan to expand into more than 40 million square feet nationwide, according to CBRE Research, company filings and eMarketer. This surge in development of big-box spaces challenges the assumption that ground-up retailers are a thing of the past, especially when it comes to discount retailers near new or lower-priced residential submarkets.
We spoke with Kobzi about the big-box trend in this market and where he sees it heading.
GlobeSt.com: Would you characterize the big-box trend as growing or shrinking in the San Diego market?
Kobzi: It's definitely a shrinking trend. We're not building the centers we used to build 10 years ago. The power centers of yesteryear are just not happening. In San Diego, everything we see is mixed-use and infill, and we don't have much room for power centers anymore. Those category killers for retailers like pet-supply companies and sporting-goods companies aren't being created anymore. Our numbers prove that. We're down a bit on the boxes; there are pending deals on them. Some of them will probably end up being something other than a retail box.
GlobeSt.com: What types of big-box retailers are entering or remaining in the market?
Kobzi: There are some active ones and new ones coming to town, mostly in the 7,000-square-foot to 10,000-square-foot range. That stock is climbing rapidly because they're growing so fast. Hobby Lobby did the deal in the old Dick's Sporting Goods in Oceanside. Big Lots is not the old big lots, but a new concept they're rolling out that's more of a Bed Bath & Beyond-type use. They're stepping up their game and took the old Ralphs in Oceanside. And there are aggressive grocers out there: Aldi and all those guys are still active on the grocery front. The Floor & Decors of the world are another big expanding box, as well as Home Goods. There are people to backfill the boxes.
GlobeSt.com: What types are leaving the market?
Kobzi: Toys R Us is the biggest one right now. That's going to be the biggest impact this year unless someone else announces store closings. Everyone's waiting on Sears as well, what happens and when it happens. It's not a fait accompli, but one day we will wake up and hear about Sears. There are also the M&As, with Albertsons and Rite Aid merging—what's going to be the fallout there with that merger is yet to be determined.
GlobeSt.com: How is San Diego's big-box market different now than it was 10 years ago?
Kobzi: As I mentioned, we're not building that type of product anymore. Tenants are taking smaller spaces, so if you had a box—like in the case of the former Sports Authority in Escondido—it ends up going to two tenants: a Home Goods and an Aldi. That's probably the biggest difference versus 10 years ago.
To succeed, it takes a blend of e-commerce with brick-and-mortar space. You have to have a combined approach, and you can't turn that overnight. If you didn't implement that strategy several years ago, you're feeling the consequences now. If you try to introduce a blended strategy now, that should have been in the works long ago.
The only ones that can get away with not doing that are the discounters: the Dollar Trees and the off-price fashion tenants. If you look, tenants like TJ Maxx and Home Goods, they don't do much advertising and they do very little Internet business. The product changes on the floor so often that consumers have to go to the store; that's their draw. It's what bargain they can get that day.
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