The Orange County Airport area is seeing a massive apartment development boom. There is currently a construction pipeline of 8,000 units with 2,818 already under construction, 4,999 approved and another 709 units waiting for approval. In fact, the market has more development activity than any other Orange County submarket, and all of the product coming to market is luxury, class-A units. We sat down with market expert Darcy Miramontes, EVP at JLL, to talk about the development activity and how it is impacting the market.
GlobeSt.com: What is driving this development boom around the OC airport?
Darcy Miramontes: The apartment development boom around the Orange County Airport is being driven by a combination of sustained job growth, high single-family home prices, local legislature and healthy office leasing activity. In the Irvine market, growth in the technology and life science industries, propelled by the innovative research at UC Irvine. The city has also become a hub for venture capital and start-up companies, earning the nickname “Silicon South.” Single-family home permits in Orange County continue to decrease year after year, and single-family home prices in Irvine have increased 6.5% year over year to a median home price of $810,000. The low inventory of moderately priced single-family homes have kept many residents in the renter pool. In 2010, the city established a limit of 15,000 new units in the Irvine Business Complex, and steady construction this cycle has brought that limit in sight. Accounting for projects that have delivered, are under construction or proposed, less than 200 units remain available under the cap. As a result of these trends, the Airport Area obtains some of the highest rents in Orange County because of its proximity to a major economic employment hub as well as the countless amenities in the area. Multifamily rents in the Airport Area have risen over 3% each year since 2011 and averaged 3.7% annual rent grow from 2011-2017. People are willing to pay a premium for convenience.
GlobeSt.com: How does development in this pocket of OC compare to other OC submarkets?
Miramontes: Availability of land in Orange County's Airport area is scarce and getting multifamily development approved and permitted is a difficult process because of the legislation enacted in 2010 limiting the amount of multifamily development allowed in the Irvine Business Complex. The Irvine Company's controlling interest in the submarket also gives them a lot of leverage, which makes it difficult for other developers to compete.
In 2018, 100% of both year-to-date and projected deliveries in Irvine will be class-A product targeting the top of the renter market. For OC as whole, 92% of 2018 year-to-date and projected deliveries will be class-A product. Irvine also has the most development activity of any OC submarket right now and accounts for 48% of the units under construction. 10.7% of the total multifamily inventory in Irvine is under construction right now. The submarket with the next most development is Anaheim, which accounts for 20.5% of the units under construction in OC. Anaheim has 5% of the total multifamily inventory under construction right now and that is the next largest percent. For the remainder of the submarkets in OC, the units under construction as a percent of total inventory is normally 1% to 3%.
GlobeSt.com: Do you expect the pipeline to grow this year?
Miramontes: No the pipeline will not deviate from what is currently under construction, planned or proposed. As mentioned earlier, 48% of the multifamily units under construction in Orange County are in Irvine. Besides what is currently in the pipeline, there is extremely limited development opportunity in the Airport Area for multifamily product.
GlobeSt.com: What does this activity say about apartment demand in OC, and the evolution of apartment demand in OC?
Miramontes: Multifamily demand in Orange County will continue to grow and the limited availability of land in areas such as Irvine will drive both office and multifamily development to look for different submarkets for development opportunities. The good news is income levels are projected to increase 3% annually in Orange County, which is positive for areas such as Irvine where rent levels are high and projected to grow 3% annually. Vacancy is a 5.5% for the Airport Area, which implies many Orange County residents are willing to pay a premium for convenience. Residents of Orange County are forced to remain in the renter pool longer as a result of rising single-family home prices and tighter lending standards. As single-family prices continue to skyrocket and the number of yearly permits decreases, the demand for multifamily units grows larger. From 2010 to 2017 the number of total housing units delivered, both single-family and multifamily, averaged 7,746 units annually compared to 9,486 units of total demand. The disparity between supply and demand for residential units coupled with rising single-family home prices support a sustained supply of multifamily construction.
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