Rising interest rates could and should raise all boats in the buyer space. That is according to Clint Robinson, associate director of Stan Johnson Co., when talking with GlobeSt.com about all things net lease. Read on for more on advice he is giving to drugstore clients, drugstore mergers and acquisitions and more.
GlobeSt.com: How will the recently announced drugstore mergers and acquisitions impact net lease investors over the next 12 months?
Clint Robison: There isn't a subtype of net lease that has seen more transition than the drugstore sector. CVS Pharmacy, one of the fifteen largest companies in the world, acquired Aetna, while Walgreens snapped up select Rite Aid stores allowing Rite Aid to merge with Albertsons. While Walgreens and CVS credit profiles were already extremely robust, they will continue to shine in the net lease space as two of the premier places for passive investors to park their money. The lesser known drugstore retailers are where I would expect more movement given their credit profiles. All-in-all, it's going to take some time to see these trends balance out and fully mature – not only because of a shift in credit, but also the real estate uses. For example, if CVS expands upon their Minute Clinic platform with Aetna, that could result in a shifting strategy for store layouts and general real estate needs.
GlobeSt.com: What advice are you giving your drugstore clients about “timing the market”?
Robison: There is a significant amount of product still on the market. In this rising interest rate environment, pricing is everything. If you want to sell, you'll need to have market pricing. Having your property sit on the market waiting for that perfect exchange buyer was a successful strategy in 2015-2016. Today, we must be more aggressive on pricing subject to buyer expectations as interest rates rise. As the spread in cost of capital between REITs and private players opens as well, we should expect activity to rise in the REIT space as they could become the dominate buyers again. Rising interest rates could and should raise all boats in the buyer space.
GlobeSt.com: What pricing and cap rate trends are you beginning to notice in this shifting sector?
Robison: As financing rates rise, buyer expectations will rise as well, especially on B- and C-level product. Premium A-caliber listings will likely source a buyer at current pricing given the amount of capital out there, which should produce some justifiable pricing – but those deals with more commonplace fundamentals will surely see a cap rate hit.
GlobeSt.com: What are your predictions for new store development trends over the next three to five years as some existing stores close or are rebranded?
Robison: CVS Pharmacy will undoubtedly see changes to their internal layout with the expansion of their Minute Clinic offering, and I expect Walgreens will follow suit by expanding their offerings to customers in order to stay competitive. But as we see some stores close as a result from these mergers, I expect we'll see a slowdown in new store construction for the foreseeable future. In the next few years, it's very possible there could be a shortage of newly built retail drugstores available for investment.
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