Florida Ranks Highest in Hurricane Storm Surge Damage Risk

MIAMI—With one subtropical storm already in the books and the hurricane season for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts beginning officially today, residents and businesses in the affected areas can expect an above normal amount of storms, according to weather experts.

A recent report has put some monetary values to  what these storms could cost.The Irvine, CA-based CoreLogic study gauging storm surge risk finds more than 6.9 million homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at potential risk of damage from hurricane storm surge inundation with a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $1.6 trillion.

The Atlantic Coast has more than 3.9 million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of more than $1 trillion, an increase of around $30 billion compared to 2017, according to the report. The Gulf Coast has more than 3 million homes at risk with more than $609 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage, which represents a more than $16 billion increase compared to last year.

There was also unsettling news for Florida and particularly the southern section of the state as the report puts the state of Florida at number one with the most susceptibility to storm surge flooding of the 19 states analyzed, with more than 2.7 million at-risk homes across the five risk categories. Louisiana ranks second with over 817,000 at-risk homes, Texas ranks third with more than 543,000 at-risk homes, and New Jersey ranks fourth with over 471,000 at-risk homes.

Florida also has the highest RCV at more than $552 billion, with New York State at number two in RCV at more than $190 billion, despite its fifth-place ranking in number of homes at risk. CoreLogic explains the high RCV for New York State is due to the density of the residential population near the coast and higher construction costs in the Empire State.

Louisiana and New Jersey were also near the top of the list for RCV, with Louisiana totaling more than $186 billion and New Jersey totaling more than $146 billion. Texas came in fifth place for RCV at more than $103 billion.

“While industry predictions for this year’s storm season indicate average activity levels, associated storm surge risk remains an important consideration for residential and commercial properties in the 19 states analyzed,” says Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. “Depending on the location of a storm’s landfall and that area’s population density and reconstruction costs, lower Category storms can cause just as much damage as storms in higher categories.”

In terms of at-risk municipalities, the Miami metro area, which includes Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, has the most homes at risk, totaling more than 788,000 with an RCV of more than $156 billion. By comparison, the New York City metro area has slightly fewer homes at risk at just over 726,000, but has a significantly higher RCV totaling more than $277 billion, a 5% increase compared to 2017.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently predicted the 2018 hurricane season to have near- to above-normal activity. NOAA predicts a 70% likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms. Five to nine of these will develop into hurricanes, and one to four are predicted to reach Category 3 classification or higher.