DTLA’s Renaissance Is Just Getting Started

The renaissance in Downtown Los Angeles is still in its infancy, according to Nick Griffin, VP of economic development at the Downtown Central Business Improvement District. The market has grown tremendously since the renaissance began in 1999, but the rate of growth is only accelerating. The planning department expects an additional 140,000 people to move to the market in the next two decades, and Griffin believes that DTLA is growing into a small city of its own that will also serve as the center of Greater Los Angeles. We sat down with Griffin for an exclusive interview to talk about the next phase of the renaissance.

GlobeSt.com: Where is the Downtown Los Angeles renaissance heading?

Nick Griffin: I am under the opinion that the next phase of this renaissance is going to be even more exciting and at a larger scale. I think that the gist of what is happening—and I think this is why people are sometimes skeptical—is that the renaissance today is a revival of a downtown, the next phase is actually the birth of a city onto itself. When you go from the 18,000 population to the 70,000 population that has happened in the initial phase of this renaissance, you are talking about a revival of Downtown. When you go from that 70,000 to 200,000-plus over the next 10 years, then you are talking about a mid-sized city. At 200,000 residents and 400,000 to 500,000 workers, you are talking about a substantial city on its own, never mind that it is also at the heart of the second-largest city in the country. When you look at it in that context, it makes sense that we are developing at the scale that we are. We are actually building a full-blown city. What is particularly significant about this is that it will also still be the center of a really major metropolis. The larger Downtown Los Angeles gets, the stronger its gravitational pull becomes and the more it draws the rest of the Los Angeles region into its orbit.

GlobeSt.com: What is driving the growth in this second phase that will make DTLA this city within a city, or its own market rather than a submarket of L.A.?

Griffin: Los Angeles traditionally didn’t have a center. It now does, and that center is growing really significantly. That is important because it is the hub of the transit system. As greater Los Angeles matures into being the kind of a world-class city that has a world-class transportation system, the hub of the city becomes downtown. Downtown’s influence economically, socially, culturally, creatively becomes even more influential. You can see that just by the fact that it is the center of the metro system, but also if you look at our arts and cultural report that we put out, downtown has really become the cultural epicenter of the region. It has a critical mass of arts and culture that dwarfs anywhere else in the area. Then, on the commercial side, downtown has already been the dominant location for traditional industries of finance and law, but not it is getting the growth industries as well of tech and media. As its cultural and commercial influence on the whole region continues to increase, those industries are going to populate downtown. In the same way that companies in New York feel like they need to be in Manhattan, companies are going to feel like they need to be downtown. They are going to draw the most talent if they are here, and they are going to have the most influence if they are here. These are statures in this idea that downtown is really becoming a city unto itself.

GlobeSt.com: Do you expect the market to continue to grow as rapidly as it has in the past?

Griffin: I think that it will happen at a greater rate. This is a process that feeds on itself and that becomes self-reinforcing. The growth becomes geometric and much more dynamic as you are adding onto it. It took us from 1999 to today to go from 18,000 residents to 70,000 residents, which is a tripling. Over that same amount of time, from now until 2040, you are going to see it triple again. It is going to be more than 200,000 residents. That will be an additional 140,000 new residents, where in the last 20 years we saw 50,000 new residents. That is the projections that city planning has for their 2040 plan. They will tell you that they also have a more rapid growth projection too.

GlobeSt.com: Why do you expect this market to continue to grow so rapidly?

Griffin: I think that one of downtown’s competitive advantages is that it is on the forefront of where cities are going, partly because it is being reborn at a time of great focus on cities. I have heard downtown be called the last great unfinished city. We have this great opportunity now to really be a thought leader and forward thinker in what cities can become and what city centers can become because we are in the process of rebuilding it. That is really exciting.

GlobeSt.com: How is the ownership and capital changing in Downtown Los Angeles as the market evolves?

Griffin: I think the capital is becoming more sophisticated and more international. The projects themselves are becoming more so. You are going to continue to see big capital and from a range of sources. Some people are concerned about the impact of reduced Chinese investment. From what I can see, there are a lot of people that are right there and ready to take their place. If you look at Onni’s activity, for example, they have a seemingly insatiable appetite for this market, and I think they are right to be doing that. I think the sources of capital and what they are doing will continue to grow.

GlobeSt.com: The DCBID has obviously been integral to the growth up to this point. What are you doing to usher in this next phase of growth?

Griffin: Generally, our strategy is to support each of the sectors and to nurture the intersection of those sectors. Residential creates more demand for retail; retail becomes more desirable for more residential; the more people that come to the market, the more companies are attracted to the talent pool. Not only is there talent downtown, but you also have more access to a great geographic area to draw that talent. Arts and culture is one of our critical advantages. We have a world-class collection of arts and culture organizations, institutions and artists that underpin that desirability. That is an example of how we are focused on where the sectors intersect. There will always be bumps in the market based on the economy, but you are seeing a growth pattern that is reinforcing itself.