The US economy is now entering the sweet spot it has not seen for decades. Unemployment is nearing record lows, U6 is headed toward a record low, low skilled workers are moving off the part time rolls into full time work. The number moving to full time was 457,000 in the past month. Black unemployment is nearing what was once considered full employment for all workers at 5.9% and dropping fast. Even felons who have served their time, are getting training for low skilled jobs. Home prices and 401K's are at a historic high, and consumers are as confident as they have ever been. Capital spending by corporations is increasing materially. The Fed under Powell seems to be very aware of needing to keep rates moderate to keep the boom going. All of this together means GDP in Q2 is likely to reach 3.5% and maybe even 4%, and to continue at those levels into Q3, and maybe longer. At those levels of growth, compared to around 1.5% on average under Obama and Democrats, it so is now very likely that the Republicans will hold the House and materially increase their Senate seats. It is the economy stupid.
The views expressed are the author's own and not those of ALM's Real Estate Media Group.
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Joel Ross
Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.
