San Diego’s Population Growth Is Slowing

In 2017, San Diego’s population grew .7%, according to research from Cushman & Wakefield. This growth rate falls below the 15-year average of .9% in the market. Overall, the market is home to 3.4 million, and 31% are millennials—giving the city one of the highest concentrations of millennials in the country. The population had been growing steadily through the mid 2010s, but started to slow in 2014. The growth rate has been slowing steadily since. We sat down with Jolanta Campion, director of research in San Diego, to talk about the population trends and patterns in the market.

GlobeSt.com: Give me a snapshot of San Diego’s population growth today.

Jolanta Campion: Home to approximately 3.4 million people today, San Diego County is the second most populous county in California behind Los Angeles. San Diego’s population grew by 0.7% between 2016 and 2017, slightly below the 15-year annual average growth rate of 0.9%. Notably, the San Diego region (+0.74%) grew at the similar rate as California (+0.77%) between 2016 and 2017, a trend that has persisted, more or less, over the last decade. As a whole, San Diego continues to see most of its growth attributed to natural increase (births minus deaths) as opposed to migration, the same trend as seen in the state of California.

GlobeSt.com: Population growth in the market was only .7%, lower than the historic average. Why is population growth slowing in San Diego?

Campion: Domestic migration in the San Diego region between 2000 and 2017 saw an annual average net loss of 8,204 people per year. Foreign immigration, by contrast, averaged growth of nearly 13,684 immigrants per year during the same time period. Natural increase during the same time period averaged at 24,926 people per year. As a result, the average annual total population growth rate was 1.0% between 2000 and 2017 and 0.9% for the last five years (2013 and 2017). During the same time, natural increase totaled 20,736 people and net migration totaled 3,556 people.

The large military presence in the region has an impact on domestic migration, which fluctuates from year to year. In any given year, thousands of active duty military personnel and their families flow in and out of the county due to changes in staffing levels on military bases or the deployment/return of military units. GlobeSt.com: Do you expect to see population growth continue to wan in San Diego?

Campion: Lastly, it is worth noting that as populations start to reach certain levels, especially with respect to a region’s land size, it gets more difficult if not impossible to sustain heightened levels of growth, especially as a percentage like those observed in the 1970s/80s (3% annually) or other prior periods of history where some grew from 6-7% to as high as 18% per year. It would be extremely difficult for a region to support too high of a growth pace for a number of reasons, such as resources, housing supply, related costs, etc. Today there is also greater competition from other growth markets, whether state, nation or across the globe. What is important for us to look at, however, is that over the last five years (2013-2017), in conjunction with strong job growth, San Diego County’s population has increased by nearly 147,000 people, while over the last 10 years (2008-2017) it has grown by nearly 310,000 people. We find these figures to be quite healthy, and expect the future to continue to see positive, sustainable growth trends.

Similar to above, based on historical patterns and future forecasts, it should be anticipated for San Diego’s population to remain on a steady upward trajectory. San Diego’s population grew by a positive 0.7% between 2016 and 2017 and is forecasted to grow at the same 0.7% level in 2018 and within a range of 0.6% and 0.8% each year thereafter for the next five years, according to Moody’s Analytics.

GlobeSt.com: Millennials are the biggest population demographic in San Diego. How will they affect the population growth in the future?

Campion: Millennials, representing 1.1 million people in San Diego, are between ages 20 and 39. The most-educated generation, with 37% of millennials with a bachelor’s degree or higher in San Diego and 35% in the U.S., has accrued a significant level of student debt which is one of the key reasons why marriages, kids and home buying have been delayed. Not because they don’t want it. In 1967, 15% of people in their late 20s were single compared to an estimated more than 50% today. Societal pressures to marry and have children have eased. As Millennials age and start to form families, the overall rate of population growth in San Diego should be positively affected.

GlobeSt.com: Overall, what is your outlook for population growth n San Diego?

Campion: For reasons like the city’s allure, ideal climate and the job center, I expect the county will follow the natural growth rate of current residents. However, I don’t expect people to start pouring en masse to San Diego given the rising cost of living as well as increased competition from other cities and states that have also become attractive to both residents and job seekers. But San Diego will hold its own as a major destination draw.