The Silver Line’s Surprising Effect on Commuter Patterns

WASHINGTON, DC–The Silver Line has not yet created a meaningful shift in commuter patterns even as office tenants seek space located on the Metro line, according to a JLL research note.

Since Silver Line began service in 2014, Tysons has seen 1.1 million square feet of office occupancy gains within a half a mile of a station, while experiencing 1.5 million square feet of occupancy losses off-Metro, JLL writes. “And tenants are willing to pay up for it, with rents for Trophy and Class A space on-Metro in Tysons commanding a 16% premium,” it adds.

Yet while the existence of the Silver Line is shaping leasing fundamentals in Tysons, it hasn’t affected ridership. Average weekday volume is ticking up year-over-year, but it is still below the levels in 2014. As more transit-oriented product delivers in Tysons in the coming years, ridership is expected to increase, but for now, the increases equated to less than 10% in most of the surrounding residential neighborhoods, JLL says.

A similar story is unfolding in Reston. In the Wiehle micromarket, average Class A rents have increased 30% since 2012, and Reston also saw the delivery of its first Trophy building on-Metro – 1900 Reston Metro Plaza – with asking rents in the $50 per square foot range, a rate not seen before in the Toll Road market outside Reston Town Center, according to JLL. Reston, in short, remains a very car-centric submarket, with less than 10% of commuters riding Metro. Although JLL does note that a significant amount of transit-oriented residential inventory is planned for the area, which should boost ridership numbers in the future.

JLL does expect there to be a more meaningful shift to Metro. In 2018 alone, leases signed by tech companies in Tysons and on the Toll Road will generate an estimated 646,541 square feet of future occupancy gains and JLL is tracking 1.5 million square feet of net new technology demand in both of those submarkets.