Volatile Stock Market: Often a leading indicator of future economic direction, the stock market has been wheezing lately even with all the corporate tax rate reduction help from last year and highly favorable regulatory environment. It's not just incremental interest rate increases, which are still well below averages. China fights back on the trade/tariff front and Europe looks shaky—Merkel's days are numbered, France lurches through political chaos, Italy teeters, and a hard Brexit seems possible. Add in all the turmoil in the White House, not to mention looming high stakes political war with Congress. All this friction won't help the global economy or the U.S.
Debt Doesn't Matter? Typically, at economic peaks, budget deficits should be in decline or governments are realizing surpluses for rainy day funds. But not today in the U.S. Again, we have another lesson in bogus supply-side economics—as deficits balloon from tax cuts and the annual national debt service now costs taxpayers more than what we pay for in our defense. What happened to the Tea Party sentiment or are tax cuts all that matter? And what happens in the next recession, when there is no budget cushion? Answer: An ever-bigger deficit and more debt, which will constrain government programs and force spending cuts, and make dealing with a recession that much more painful and difficult.
Empty Retail Space: Unemployment is near record lows, wages are rising finally, consumer confidence is up, and more than a few store fronts are still empty along Main Streets, High Streets and in many malls and strip centers even with most development a non starter for years. Okay, we know about e-commerce's impact. But what happens when the next economic downturn occurs? Then we'll see what empty really means. And you want to own retail real estate? Keep only the best.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
