Chris MuoioCommercial real estate sales volume totaled $537 billion last year, the second strongest year on record in the US, according to research from Ten-X. The 2018 deal velocity was up 7.5% over 2017. While the acquisition and investment activity is certainly a reflection of strong market fundamentals, the deal volume was driven by a significant increase in merger and acquisitions and the new opportunity zone tax legislation.

“There was a lot of merger and acquisition activity, particularly in the retail space. One of the larger and more notable transactions was Brookfield's acquisition of GGP for $15 billion. That really boosted deal volumes in the retail sector,” Christopher Muoio, quantitative strategist at Ten-X, tells GlobeSt.com.

Opportunity zones were an equally strong driver of activity. Muoio estimates that 14% of deal volume in 2018 occurred in designated opportunity zones. “The opportunity zone legislation created in the recent tax overhaul,” he says. “A lot of the investors and clients that we talk to are really interested in this space, and it seems to be a rising theme. Investors are trying to take advantage of this tax legislation.”

While there is a lot of excitement in the space, the opportunity zone regulations weren't finalized until this year, making some of the deal activity last year preemptive. “The regulations were not finalized, but everyone had a pretty good idea of what they were going to look like,” says Muoio. “It was the final details that weren't ironed out. A lot of investors new that they would get a tax benefit and wanted to start investing in this space sooner rather than later.”

While the numbers clearly show bullish investor activity, investor sentiment reports show increasing concern about the possibility of a recession. However, this could be left over concern about the Fed's plan to increase interest rates last year. This year, it has changed direction, softening investor concerns. “Early last year, interest rates were steadily increasing and investors were fearing more expensive capital,” says Muoio. “That sort of fear has been taken off of the table by the Fed at this point.”

Last year's deal volume, however, could have been an anomaly—a perfect storm of new tax policy, opportunity zone incentives and strong merger deals. In 2019, Muoio doesn't expect to hit the same numbers. Instead, he says 2019 will likely be on par with 2017 deal activity. “When looking at 2018 transaction volume, it was really boosted by merger and acquisition activity, and those are one-off, non-repeatable event,” he says. “Deal volume has stayed strong this year, but it is hard to imagine it eclipsing 2018 numbers. 2019 deal volume should be solid barring any cyclical change.”

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Kelsi Maree Borland

Kelsi Maree Borland is a freelance journalist and magazine writer based in Los Angeles, California. For more than 5 years, she has extensively reported on the commercial real estate industry, covering major deals across all commercial asset classes, investment strategy and capital markets trends, market commentary, economic trends and new technologies disrupting and revolutionizing the industry. Her work appears daily on GlobeSt.com and regularly in Real Estate Forum Magazine. As a magazine writer, she covers lifestyle and travel trends. Her work has appeared in Angeleno, Los Angeles Magazine, Travel and Leisure and more.