WASHINGTON, DC—The outlook for the US economy, real estate capital markets and real estate fundamentals is expected to moderate over the next three years, according to the latest forecast from the Urban Land Institute's Center for Capital Markets and Real Estate. The forecast is based on a semi-annual survey of 45 economists and industry analysts. Responses to the most recent survey, conducted between March and April, suggest that while growth will continue, it will continue at a slower pace than previous years. For instance, forecasts for commercial real estate prices are projected to grow at slowing rates relative to recent years, with prices in 2020 and 2021 falling below the long-term average growth rate for the first time since 2011. To name another example, growth in single family housing starts is expected to reach 900,000 in 2019 before moderating down to 888,500 in 2020 and 850,000 in 2021. Price growth is expected to moderate from 5.6% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2021. Or consider the typically red-hot apartment category: Vacancy rates for apartments are expected to increase slightly to 4.6% in 2019, 4.8% in 2020 and 4.9 % in 2021. Granted, they are still below the long-term average of 5.2% but this uptick is also accompanied by a moderating rental rate growth, which was 2.8% in 2018 and is projected to be 2.2% by the end of the forecast period, below the long-term average of 2.4%. "Overall, expectations for 2019 and 2020 are flat to up, while the newly introduced 2021 forecast calls for slower growth and returns," said William Maher, head of research and strategy for LaSalle Investment Management and a survey participant. "Moderating growth in gross domestic product and jobs growth for 2019 to 2021 should lead to slower but still positive real estate demand and absorption."