Gary Shilling. (Photo via Gary Shilling)
A U.S. recession “may already be underway,” and the bond market rally that began in the early 1980s is still intact, says Gary Shilling, founder of the investment advisory firm A. Gary Shilling & Co.
In his latest Insight report released just before Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report, Shilling writes that the 10-year Treasury note yield will drop to 1% in a year and the 30-year Treasury bond will drop to 2% a year after the recession starts, delivering double-digit returns. In that case, the 10-year Treasury would gain close to 12%, and the 30-year Treasury bond 14%.
Recommended For You
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Bernice Napach
Bernice Napach is a senior writer at ThinkAdvisor covering financial markets and asset managers, robo-advisors, college planning and retirement issues. She has worked at Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Reuters, Investor's Business Daily and The Bond Buyer and has written articles for The New York Times, TheStreet.com, The Star-Ledger, The Record, Variety and Worth magazine. Bernice has a Bachelor of Science in Social Welfare from SUNY at Stony Brook.
