How to Capitalize As Millennials Leave Major Cities

Statistics show there is a decrease in younger urban residents than years prior, with many leaving in pursuit of affordable housing, better schools.

According to the US Census Bureau, a handful of US cities (including NY, Chicago, Houston, SF, Las Vegas, and DC) lost tens of thousands of Millennial and younger Gen X residents last year. Cities with more than 500,000 people collectively lost 27,000 residents age 25 to 39 in 2018, a noticeable population decline for the fourth consecutive year.

However, young people do still value the connectivity of shared housing and communal green spaces along with walkable access to restaurants and shops. So although younger populations in some major cities are shrinking, other select cities are thriving. Among the big cities that gained large numbers of young adults were LA, Phoenix, San Antonio, San Diego, Austin, Seattle, Minneapolis and Denver.

The question for our industry is, how can commercial real estate investors and developers discern this dichotomous data and capitalize on this opportunity?

As more emphasis is placed on the “hipsturbia” lifestyle, suburbs with good jobs, relatively easy access to nearby city centers and moderate weather are growing twice as fast as the closest cities, per US census data. The people who are thriving in the knowledge and sharing economy want walkable, mixed-use, interesting environments while at the same time, they want affordable housing. It’s not only young couples and families spurring the suburbs to evolve. Baby boomers and empty nesters are opting to stay in the suburbs and also pushing to make them more hip with recreation, retail, and restaurants. Brew pubs, trendy cafes, and yoga studios are becoming bare minimum requirements.

Even a few years ago, young creatives had started to flee Brooklyn’s growing affluence for communities like Dobbs Ferry or Tarrytown. It’s now happening more in other cities as the younger cohort of Millenials move into the next stage of life. Universities are often key to bringing a constant supply of young people and employers, who are looking for that talent pipeline often found in urban downtowns. This is true of Northwestern in Evanston, Illinois, ASU in Tempe, AZ, and Stanford in Silicon Valley. Near Atlanta, Decatur and Alpharetta are among those trying to adopt the formula. Around NYC, the communities of Yonkers and New Rochelle fit the bill. Throughout LA, there is a strong push to more up and coming pockets around the new and existing transit lines, UCLA, USC, and plenty of new commercial and residential development happening in Long Beach. The “back to the ‘burbs” trend won’t happen across the board, and big cities will still attract young post-Millennials, but suburbs with the right downtown-mimicking attributes can expect renewed attention from real estate developers and investors alike.

Millennials (including Democrat, Independent, and Republican) feel the tax burden on middle class and small businesses is too great. So middle class and small businesses may be protected and supported to flourish in these more opportunistic/affordable areas of major U.S. cities. According to Credit Karma, those living in the suburbs have $3,600 in savings on average, compared to $1,000 for city-dwellers (due to wage stagnation and high living costs in dense urban areas). This may mean more disposable income spending from Millennials and those alike for businesses in up-and-coming neighborhoods. The same large metropolitan areas that have a strong influx of Millennials (Minneapolis, Seattle, Austin, and LA) are also paving the way for passing up-zoning laws and regulations with developer incentives (changing single-family zoned lots into multi-family and/or mixed-use zoning) to help with the housing affordability crisis and the fight against segregation.

Millennials are still juggling to pay off student debt while they have children and raise families. They value experiences and culture within these more affordable suburban areas, so commercial real estate investors and developers can not only capitalize on this opportunity, but do a great service to these up-and-coming communities by allocating capital wisely within select pockets and surrounding areas of major metropolitan cities. Forward-thinking investors around cities like Denver and Seattle are investing in retail strip centers with a high walk score, recession-resistant anchor tenant, and a diverse mix of other tenants including trendy mom-and-pop service shops (e.g. cafes, salons, restaurants).

Savvy innovative developers in cities like Austin and LA are seeking student housing near growing campuses or up-zoned mixed use developments with a high transit score, reduced parking requirements, and a strong affordable housing component. America’s most bullish economic cycles is nearing its end (as reflected by the recent inverted yield curve), but investors and developers are still putting smart capital to work in profitable, entrepreneurial ways while helping these opportunistic communities prosper.

Viktor Simco is associate director of Paloma Realty Partners. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of ALM Real Estate Group.