While the U.S. continues to be in the midst of its longest uninterrupted economic expansion in modern history, slowing growth metrics along with abundant geopolitical uncertainties are heightening perceived risk of impending recession. Concerns include:

• U.S. GDP growth is decelerating and during the near‐term increases are anticipated to remain modest;
• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 125.1 in September, down from a revised August 2019 reading of 134.2;
• Trade with Canada and Mexico falls into the same uncertainty now gripping U.S. relations with China and Europe. A failure of Congress to ratify a new NAFTA deal which will govern trade relations with these two neighboring countries is a warning sign that illustrates how political volatility could drag down the U.S. economy even if its fundamentals remain strong;
• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability indicator, which gauges the likelihood of a recession within the coming 12 months, rose steeply from around 10 percent at the beginning of 2019 to 37.9 percent in August;
• An inverted interest rate yield curve has endured for several months, a phenomenon that has signaled each U.S. economic recession since 1950;
• Ultra‐low interest rates continue to trend downwards. While this is a positive for borrowers, it is also raising speculation that America is destined for negative yields like where Japan and much of Europe have been stuck for some time;
• Washington DC is currently in an impeachment frenzy;
• Unknown effects of Brexit which depend on whether the UK leaves with a withdrawal agreement, or before an agreement is ratified ("no‐deal" Brexit);
• In response to a proposed extradition bill, which included an agreement with mainland China, since June, Hong Kong has been subject to mass demonstrations with continuous violent clashes and rioting;
• The Middle East is currently more combustible than ever. Conflict(s) resulting in global ramifications could break out in various cities/countries for a multitude of reasons;

Despite daily warnings of possible economic fragility, jobs creation statistics remain relatively steady and personal incomes continue to grow, both of which could sustain the financial system during whatever rough patches may be encountered. Not everyone believes a recession is imminent, and contrarians can point to other metrics that paint a much sunnier picture. Either way, the prevailing view seems to be that when the next recession hits, it will be less severe than the last one.

Through this past August the U.S. hotel industry's expansion cycle reached 114 months, as hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) declined year over year only two months during this period, namely during August 2018 and in June 2019. Generally, national hotel supply and demand growth are in equilibrium resulting in relatively flat occupancy levels and lackluster RevPAR growth stemming from average daily rate increases barely equal to inflation (and decelerating).