Photo by Shutterstock.

Late in 2018, Daniel Lebensohn, co-founder at BH3, started a debt opportunity fund to purchase non-performing loans. "We are specifically targeting non-performing loans from banks and what we call tourist lenders or folks that have come into the space that are bridge lenders," Lebensohn says. "They took over a huge chunk of the business that conventional lenders shied away from due to the new regulations that emerged after the recession."

These capital providers are handling more sensitize, higher-risk transactions. That makes it more likely that their loans will run into problems, according to Lebensohn. "That's not to say some banks heavily into construction lending won't have their share of distress," he says. "But a lot of these tourist lenders pivoted from equity to debt. Everyone and their grandmother is in the lending space today."

BH3, which bought non-performing loans from banks and recaptured assets in the last recession, is not seeing much distress yet.

"If it was a faucet, it's not quite a drip or a trickle yet, but some of them are chunkier loans," Lebensohn says. "We recently purchased a loan on a Manhattan high rise in July."

That condominium deal, 125 Greenwich Street, consisted of 273 condominium units and 320,000 square feet. "Not all of them [those loans] are that chunky, but there is more coming," Lebensohn says.

While Lebensohn doesn't think there will be the same distressed buying opportunities as there were during the recession, he thinks the cycle is over. "Money is still very cheap, so it's still very compelling to invest in hard assets," he says. "If someone needs to get money out, there will be a lot of appetite to buy. But it's not the same market that it was a couple of years ago."

Lebensohn sees problems in condos, particularly projects developed later in the cycle. "In the higher end, where units are selling for $4 million and up, you will see distress," he says. "Then you'll see it in multifamily where people projected much richer rents than they're getting."

Multifamily could get hit especially hard in areas with rent control laws, which could lead to more problem loans. "One area where you will see it [distress] is in New York City rent-stabilized housing," Lebensohn says. "You have a million units across New York City that have virtually been shut down. There is little to no room for rental increases through the new legislation."

There will also be a limited opportunity for capital improvements.

"Anyone who over-levered those product types, which are predominantly pre-war, walk up over the five boroughs of New York City, will be in some pain," Lebensohn says. "Taxes are going up and utilities are going up, but rents are not going up. I think the legislature got it completely wrong, and the housing will suffer as a result. A lot of capital won't be going into those buildings."

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Leslie Shaver

Les Shaver has been covering commercial and residential real estate for almost 20 years. His work has appeared in Multifamily Executive, Builder, units, Arlington Magazine in addition to GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum.