Who's Driving Global Cities’ CRE Momentum? Not US Markets.
Separately, JLL reported that global commercial transaction volumes reached an all-time high of $800 billion in 2019, increasing 4% year-over-year.
CHICAGO—US cities have traditionally been a driver of innovation and overall business momentum but according to a new index by JLL, they barely register a beep on a global scale now.
JLL’s City Momentum Index 2020 identifies the world’s most dynamic cities from a real estate perspective, covering 130 major established and emerging business hubs. While evidence points to the global economy moving into a synchronised slowdown, JLL says in its report, its latest research highlights several cities in the Top 20 that continue to exhibit remarkable dynamism, particularly in Asia.
For instance, Indian cities feature strongly despite a slowing national economy. Hyderabad emerges as the world’s most dynamic city, pushing last year’s Index winner, Bengaluru, into second place.
Another five Indian cities make the Top 20: Chennai (5th), Delhi (6th), Pune (12th), Kolkata (16th) and Mumbai (20th).
China has five cities in the Top 20: Shenzhen (10th), Chongqing (11th), Wuhan (13th), Hangzhou (15th) and Shanghai (17th). However, JLL notes that this is the weakest showing from China since the launch of the Index in 2014.
South East Asia is represented in the Top 20 by the Vietnamese cities of Ho Chi Minh City (3rd) and Hanoi (7th), while Manila (8th) sits in its highest ever position.
Once again, Nairobi (4th) is Africa’s sole representative, while Dubai (14th) reappears in the Top 20 for the first time since 2017. The Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh (18th), makes its maiden appearance in the Top 20, as it starts to open up its economy.
The US Makes an Appearance
The US does make an appearance in the Top 20: Silicon Valley comes in at 9th place and Austin at No. 19. They are the only representatives from the advanced economies.
While Silicon Valley’s reputation as a preeminent innovation hub is very well established, recent years have seen mid-sized cities such as Austin, Denver, Charlotte and Nashville garner growing reputations as talent-rich tech hubs, JLL says.
Global Commercial Transactions
In a separate report, JLL reports that global commercial transaction volumes reached an all-time high of $800 billion last year, increasing 4% year-over-year and making 2019 the most liquid year on record. That said, it also noted that investors are increasingly favoring high-growth, mid-sized cities as they focus on access to yield and longer-term resilience.
“As the real estate cycle extends into its tenth year, investors are increasingly favoring locations and sectors that are resilient to economic or geopolitical disruption,” Richard Bloxam, Global CEO of Capital Markets at JLL, says in prepared remarks. “Cities that offer a diverse range of talent and innovation attract significant investment interest, with the industrial and ‘living’ sectors continuing to perform well in the current global climate.”
JLL reports that outperformance in the US and core markets in Asia are driving growth, led by New York, Japan, China, South Korea and Singapore.
Another high-growth city is Paris, which has jumped into a top global position, benefiting from significant foreign investment, low interest rates and strong fundamentals. On the other end of the spectrum, direct commercial investment volumes in London are expected to rebound this year following a Brexit resolution, having almost halved in 2019.