JACKSONVILLE, FL—Multifamily investment sales crossed the billion-dollar mark here for the fourth consecutive year in 2019. A new report from Colliers International Northeast Florida indicates the multifamily market continued its strong record of growth in the final months of 2019—with Q4 marking the 19th consecutive quarter that overall multifamily occupancy remained above 94%.
Bradley Coe, Colliers' Senior Director of Multifamily Investments and Matt McCarthy a member of the Colliers' Central North Florida Multifamily Investment and Land Services Team elaborated on the report for GlobeSt.com
Coe says the primary growth driver in the Jacksonville area is in-migration, fueled by several factors, including being a business/tax-friendly state, relative affordability, strong demographics, a skilled labor pool and high quality of life. Those factors played a key role relative to the region's population growth and economic expansion during this cycle. From 2013 to 2018, Jacksonville's population grew by over 10%, far outpacing the national average of 3.5%.
"We've also seen an improvement in Jacksonville's ability to attract and retain young adults (age 20-34), a key demographic," Coe says. "During that same five-year period, the growth rate among young adults in Jacksonville was 8.3%, more than three times the national average. EMSI, a labor market analytics firm, ranked Jacksonville as the #1 city for talent acquisitions last year. Last year we added approximately 24,400 jobs, growing our employment base by 3.4%. Over the last five years, Jacksonville's employment base has seen an average annual expansion of over 3%, and our real gross metropolitan product has increased an estimated average of 4.4% annually."
Coe says he believes the growth is sustainable
"Over the last few years, Jacksonville has seen a significant increase in national exposure and interest. Jacksonville is now on the map for both individuals and companies looking to relocate or invest. Certainly from a multifamily investment perspective, we've seen a significant increase in activity/interest from groups based in California and the Northeast, particularly New York. Affordability is a big factor and an advantage that Jacksonville has over a lot of other MSAs. Both our median home value and our average rental rate for an apartment unit are well below regional and national averages. Also, much of our job growth has come in industries/sectors that are growing across the country and are well positioned moving forward."
McCarthy says financial services and healthcare are key economic drivers. The Mayo Clinic, Baptist Health/MD Anderson, Florida Blue, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank have all established a significant presence in Jacksonville over the last decade.
"In terms of fastest growing, we're in the early stages of a technology boom here in Jacksonville, McCarthy says. "Unbeknownst to most, in 2019 Jacksonville was actually the fastest growing city in the country for tech jobs. Jacksonville's year-over-year growth for tech jobs was 54%, well ahead of better known tech cities like Sunnyvale, Irvine and San Diego. Bank of America and Florida Blue led in job posting volume, and while Bank of America's most frequent positions typically relate to business intelligence, software development and cybersecurity, Florida Blues job postings were led overall by analytics-oriented roles."
Coe and McCarthy believe the growth will continue in 2020.
"From a macro perspective, interest rates are currently low and expected to stay low. There's still a lot of capital out there with a strong appetite for multifamily product," Coe says. "Obviously cap rates have compressed significantly over the run of this cycle, especially in certain markets and large metros. I believe that will continue to push investors toward more affordable markets like Jacksonville as well as tertiary markets that have a compelling story relative to their in-migration and economic growth."
McCarthy points out that Jacksonville's unemployment rate has been one of the lowest in the nation.
"Jacksonville's unemployment rate was one of the lowest in the nation at only 2.6%. Based on current macroeconomic conditions, affordability within the market, and Jacksonville's growing economy, I believe we're well positioned for a strong 2020.
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