Multifamily Loan Maturities Expected to Rise as Net Operating Incomes Drop

Maturities for multifamily loans will be up this year by double-digits during the disruption of capital markets by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from CBRE.

The rise in multifamily maturities—up 11.9% to $72.9 billion in the main lender categories—is expected, writes report author Jeanette Rice, CBRE’s head of multifamily research for the Americas. It’s part of “a new ‘wall of maturities’ that is building for the 2022-2026 period.”

For its report, CBRE analyzed maturity forecasts produced by Trepp and the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Loans from banks will make up most of the multifamily maturities in 2020, according to the CBRE report. They hold $52 billion of the total.

The large bank portion comes from an increase in originations by banks in the last five years. Banks loans typically come with shorter-term financings, according to the report.

For Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA agency maturities, the total dips slightly from 2019 down to $10.8 billion this year from roughly $11 billion in 2019.

Agency maturities, which generally come with longer term lengths, also saw an increase in originations during the 2010s. They are expected to rise over the next several years.

Life companies’ loan maturities will increase to $7.1 billion this year from $6 billion last year, according to the report. Their maturities also should increase in coming years, though not as much as agency maturities. Lending volume by life companies has been more stable than agencies since 2015, according to the report.

Commercial-backed mortgage securities will see the lowest amount of loan maturities this year, at just $3.5 billion. That’s a good thing, according to the report.

“The low CMBS maturities volume in 2020 and 2021 is a silver lining for the industry since CMBS has the least amount of flexibility for loan modification,” Rice wrote.

CMBS maturities are expected to fall in coming years, according to the report.

For alternative debt providers, such as debt funds, mortgage REITs, pension funds, mezzanine and bridge lenders, CBRE did not provide figures on loan maturities. Generally, Rice wrote, maturities are “very likely rising,” and “the industry can expect to see increased loan maturity volumes from these sources” in the years to come.

As investors and lenders seek opportunities resulting from the maturities, they may encounter less than favorable conditions.

“These loans are at some risk,” Rice wrote. “This year’s crop of maturities is likely to result in some losses and loan modifications.”

As for what’s ahead, with the down cycle caused by COVID-19, net operating income for most properties will decrease, according to the report. That factor and other conditions will limit options for lenders, borrowers and mortgage professionals.

“During down cycles, assets typically have lower NOIs, plus a borrower may be challenged by new, tighter loan underwriting standards such as lower LTVs and higher DSCRs. Additionally, during down cycles, some debt capital providers become much less aggressive or move totally to the sidelines, giving borrowers fewer capital options.”

Two mitigating factors against the downturn and lower NOIs, however, are asset appreciation for most multifamily in recent years and lower interest rates.

With so many loans maturing, refinancing is hot right now. Some sellers also are motivated under these market conditions.