Seattle’s Multifamily Market is Outperforming Other CRE Asset Classes

SEATTLE—The pandemic and resulting slowdown has uncovered a couple of interesting factoids. For one, trampoline sales are through the roof, pun intended. So are Netflix’s stock price and alcohol sales.

For more data directly related to commercial real estate, the Kidder Mathews’ multifamily investment team of Dylan Simon and Jerrid Anderson recently analyzed the recent rent and occupancy trends in King County. The team discovered the multifamily market is performing well–and certainly significantly better than nearly all other commercial real estate asset classes. And, the CRE market is in early innings of how the current pandemic will impact the broader economy along with the Puget Sound apartment market.

“The most surprising aspect of this pandemic so far is the resiliency of the apartment sector, especially in markets such a Seattle where the sector remains extremely strong,” Simon tells GlobeSt.com. “So far, the silver linings are rethinking how we live and work: Promoting healthy living spaces and rethinking how to integrate work from home strategies in apartment buildings and other amenities that promote lifestyle in a change in the overall dynamic of interaction at the office.”

To ascertain how the regional multifamily market is performing, Simon and Anderson set about collecting a control set of data in King County. Then they analyzed the data during the course of the last 3½ months to begin determining emerging trends.

“Historically, troubles in economic markets first cascade in the form of declining rental rates,” says Simon. “In the case of the current COVID-19 pandemic, the local apartment market is behaving–at least as of now–a bit differently. And, rental rates remain steady.”

The surveyed data covers all of King County, with a healthy balance across the spectrum of age, location, building size and unit size. Rental rates, averaged across 44,000 units, started in January at $2.30 per square foot and as of April 15, 2020, have climbed a nominal 0.3% to $2.32 per square foot.

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic freezing global economic activity, Seattle was set for another nation-leading banner year of rental rate growth. As of March 2020, Yardi pegged Seattle at 6% year-over-year rental rate growth. This annual growth is second only to Phoenix, and legions beyond San Francisco, which barely reached 1.5% rental rate growth in that same period.

“In challenging economic times, occupancy naturally falls,” Anderson says. “Yet in the current environment, we expect a different near-term result–primarily due to the moratorium on evictions, much less a huge disincentive to go out into the world and seek new housing. The data is highly reflective of these circumstances. Occupancy in our sample set of apartment units was 93% in January 2020 and as of April 15, had ticked up slightly to 93.1%. We would expect occupancy rates to improve in spring months, and they did so marginally until April when the market responded to a Stay Home, Say Healthy environment.”

The percentage of rent collected, or rather the percentage of rent not collected, is usually a boring statistic. However, in times of economic softening, it’s time to dust off the old financial statement to recall just how bad it got last go-round, says Simon.

“This time is different, truly different,” he says. “Until at least June 4 of this year, renters cannot be evicted for non-payment of rent, nor can landlords assess late fees for non-payment. These circumstances, coupled with an unprecedented spike in unemployment, naturally lead to a huge uptick in collection loss.”

Accordingly, collection loss more than doubled from 2.9% in January to 6.6% as of April 15. To those reading local and national headlines, single-digit collection loss may not seem that bad–and it isn’t, says Anderson.

“Apartment renters don’t always stay put. This is increasingly demonstrated in urban centers where apartments are closer together, unit sizes are smaller and there’s always the bigger, better deal right around the corner offering new finishes, better amenities and likely some lease-up concessions,” says Simon. “Across the region, it’s fair to peg renewal of leases, otherwise referred to as retention, around 50%. This percentage is sometimes higher, but often lower in urban centers. In our current environment, it’s not surprising that many residents are opting to stay put–or more aptly said, Stay Home, Stay Healthy.”

The team’s data collection started in January 2020 with average retention at 61%. This is higher than normal, but some of that can easily be attributed to seasonality. Not surprisingly, retention increased nearly 10% to an average of 66% as of April 15. Simon and Anderson are continuing to monitor the data and expect retention to remain high through the Stay Home, Stay Healthy Order–and eviction moratorium–and then begin to normalize.

“Everyone is watching the apartment market and overall economy very closely in the coming weeks and months to determine what the future holds,” says Anderson.