Lodging and leisure and non-food retail sectors would be among the hardest hit if coronavirus lockdowns continue or are reinstated due to future infection spikes, according to a new Fitch Ratings heat map.
Commodity, airline and gaming industries would also suffer the greatest impacts if a meaningful economic recovery is delayed beyond 2021, the report concluded.
Fitch's baseline assumption is that the economy will begin to improve in the third quarter "after a short but severe global recession." A "downside" scenario assumes COVID-19 flare-ups and renewed stay-at-home orders that could push recovery to pre-pandemic levels to around the middle of the decade. Other worst-case assumptions include sharper economic contractions in the US and Europe, double-dip slowdowns in China and East Asia, wage declines and job losses across income brackets, prolonged downturns in financial markets and a collapse in demand for oil.
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Cheryl Miller
Cheryl Miller, based in Sacramento, covers the state legislature and emerging industries, including autonomous vehicles and marijuana. She authors the weekly cannabis newsletter Higher Law. Contact her at [email protected]. On Twitter: @CapitalAccounts
